Some rain at times late tonight through Saturday evening; warming up early next week

Finally a night without any frost or freeze headlines in the Northland, but now we’ve got some rain in the forecast, and this rain is expected to begin later this evening/overnight, with some rain possible at times during the day Saturday into Saturday evening. It also looks like will be seeing some wildfire smoke move through the Northland through Saturday, but this smoke should be confined to the mid/upper levels of the atmosphere with no impacts expected near the surface. More smoke may start to move in from the west during the day on Sunday.

Saturday looks like a fairly cool day thanks to the cloud cover and occasional rain showers. We’re looking at highs generally in the 50s to lower 60s across the Northland for Saturday.

Sunday’s weather looks a little nicer as will get rid of the rain chances, and see a bit more sun, but still expect some lingering clouds as well. Temperatures across the Northland for Sunday afternoon should mainly be in the 60s.

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Radar loop ending at 6:05 PM CDT, Friday, September 11, 2020.

Rain from the eastern Dakotas to western and southern Minnesota is advancing slowly toward the north/northeast late this afternoon, but this rain is still several hours away from reaching the Twin Ports as of 6 PM Friday.

Source: https://weather.cod.edu/

It looks like we may get two rounds of rain in Duluth and Superior. The first would arrive overnight tonight (mostly after Midnight) and this round of rain could linger through most of Saturday morning (ending ~9-11 AM) After that we could see a few hours of dry weather in the Twin Ports, but scattered showers could redevelop late Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening, so an all day rain or a washout is not expected in the Twin Ports for Saturday as we should have some dry hours mixed in between the rains.

18z HRRR model simulated radar forecast ending at 1 AM Sunday, September 13, 2020.

Source: https://weathermodels.com/

It still looks like much of the Northland will pick up around a quarter to half inch of rain through Saturday night, but higher amounts approaching three quarters of an inch are possible across southern portions of the area. The far northwest portion of the Northland up near International Falls is still expected to get the least amount of rain from this system with amounts generally around a tenth of an inch.

Source: https://lab.weathermodels.com/

Finally seeing a strong mid/upper level low pressure system which has been stuck over the Southern Rockies the last few days begin to lift northeastward today as it moves into the Western High Plains. This system will continue to move to the east-northeast passing over Minnesota and Wisconsin Saturday and Saturday night.

Note: This is the same system that brought an early season snowfall to the Rockies earlier in the week.

Visible loop below ending ~3:30 PM CT Friday, September 11th, 2020.

Source: https://weather.cod.edu/

Here’s how this system looks on low level water vapor imagery.

A nice looking low pressure system.

Loop time ending ~3:30 PM CT, Friday, September 11th, 2020.

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Much of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin have seen their first 32 F freeze this season (blue areas on map) Although there are some spots scattered around the area that have yet to receive their first freeze, one being closer to Lake Superior, but this really isn’t unusual at all. Note: The coldest temperature at the Duluth Airport over the last few days was 34 degrees which occurred on September 10th.

Source: https://mrcc.illinois.edu/

70% of days so far this month have been below average in Duluth, with just 30% of days being above average so far this month.

Here’s a look at average temperature departures so far this month at Duluth, Minnesota.

Blue=Below Average

Red=Above Average

Source: https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/

Average temperature rankings for September 2020 thru the 10th – A very cool start to the month across the Northern Plains, upper Midwest and Northern Great Lakes, will see if this cool trend persists for most of the rest of this month, or will temperatures start to warm up? Time will tell.

Low Temperatures from Thursday, September 10th, 2020, and their rankings for September 10th.

Duluth, MN: 34 degrees (2nd coldest on record) Record low for September 10th is 31 degrees set in 1917.

Brainerd, MN: 30 degrees (2nd coldest on record) Record low for September 10th is 24 degrees set in 1917.

Hibbing, MN: 27 degrees (3rd coldest on record) Record low for September 10th is 26 degrees set in 2006.

International Falls, MN: 28 degrees (3rd coldest on record) Record low for September 10th is 25 degrees set in 1917.

Ashland, WI: 31 degrees (5th coldest on record) Record low for September 10th is 25 degrees set in 1967 and 1917.

There are indications in model guidance that temperatures will warm up on a few days next week (especially the early part of the week) but after that it looks like we may cool right back down again for the middle to latter part of next week. So if you’re missing 70 degree temps, then take full advantage of the weather next Tuesday and Wednesday as that looks like our best shot at seeing 70s in Duluth.

Source: 12z European ensemble model 9.11.2020; https://weathermodels.com/

Thanks for reading!

Tim

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