A shot at 80 degrees on Tuesday; much cooler mid to late week with frost/freeze risks

Up and Down Temperatures ahead this week, all this without a whole lot of rain! In fact it looks like will have to wait until next weekend (September 19th-20th) for our next best chance at getting some rain in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

Areas of frost are likely early Monday morning across northern Minnesota, then will have a chance for a more widespread frost/freeze over the entire Northland late this week (~September 17th-18th)

An easterly wind on Monday will keep temperatures a little cooler near Lake Superior, while locations further inland see their temperatures climb into the 60s to lower 70s Monday afternoon.

A warm front lifting NE through the Northland late Monday afternoon and Monday night may produce a few isolated showers in northeast Minnesota, but a strong cap (warm temps aloft) will likely mean this front will come through dry even with increasing instability and steep mid level lapse rates which would usually be a cause of concern for storms and even severe weather, but not with this setup for Monday night.

A warm and windy day looks likely on Tuesday as the Northland sits in the warm sector of a low pressure system which is expected to track near the Minnesota-Ontario border, a cold front attached to this low will swing through the Northland Tuesday evening, but a dry frontal passage is likely due to a strong cap which will remain in place. Highs on Tuesday should reach the mid 70s to low 80s across the Northland, but luckily will have some higher dew points on Tuesday otherwise we’d be looking at a higher end fire weather day in our area, but with the increase in low level moisture on Tuesday this should help keep the fire risk a bit lower in our area. It does look windy on Tuesday with a southwest wind at 15 to 25 mph with higher gusts likely.

Note: Average date for the last 80 degree temperature at Duluth is September 11th. In 2019, the last 80 degree temp came on September 19th.

Probably won’t be setting any new high temperature records on Tuesday.

…Record Highs for September 15th…

Ashland: 93 F set in 1939

Duluth: 89 F set in 1939

Brainerd: 89 F set in 1939

Hibbing: 84 F set in 1939

International Falls: 84 F set in 1920

Much cooler temperatures arrive mid to late week, with highs Wednesday in the mid 50s to mid 60s, even cooler Thursday and Friday as highs will only be in the 50s.

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-Frost Advisory in effect from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM Monday including the following cities: International Falls, Bigfork, Grand Rapids, Hibbing, Cook, Ely, Isabella, Hurley and Gile.

Temperatures ranging from 34 to 36 degrees will result in frost formation. Frost could kill sensitive outdoor vegetation if left uncovered.

Source: https://www.weather.gov/dlh/

Widespread wildfire smoke and a lot of activity in the tropics this week.

Note: The Northland will be seeing some wildfire smoke over the next few days as massive fires continue to burn over the western US. Favorable upper level winds will help carry some smoke from the western fires eastward into the Northland in the coming days.

Source: https://weather.cod.edu/

Here’s a look at Sunday afternoon temperatures.

Note: Denver, Colorado has seen temperatures climb back into the lower 80s yesterday and today, a nice recovery after the record cold and snow they had in that area just a few days ago.

Normal highs in the Northland in mid-September are in the middle to upper 60s, so overall not a bad day in the temperature department as highs today were generally in the low to mid 60s.

Source: https://lab.weathermodels.com/

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Precipitation totals for 2020 (thru September 13th)

Source: https://mrcc.illinois.edu/

2020 Accumulated Precipitation Graph for Duluth, Minnesota.

Haven’t broken out of this dry weather pattern we’ve been in for most of 2020. The only months so far this year that have had above average precipitation in Duluth are January (+0.41″ above normal) March (+0.25″ above normal) and July (+1.40″ above normal)

Note: The driest year on record at Duluth was in 1910 with 18.11″ of precipitation. So far in 2020, we’ve had 14.62″ of precipitation.

Much of the Northland continues to run below to well below normal in precipitation this year, but there have been a few exceptions to this, as Hayward and Grand Rapids are running above normal in precipitation by +5.44″ and +2.53″ respectively.

Percent of precipitation for 2020 thru September 13th.

Wetter areas in green, drier areas in yellow.

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What happened to the rainfall Friday night-Saturday, September 11th-12th?

I don’t like to blame computer models for a busted forecast, but they were way off on forecast rainfall totals for Duluth. The majority of the weather models were showing around a half inch or so of rain in Duluth Friday night and Saturday, instead we only picked up 0.08″ of rain at the Duluth Airport. With how dry its been this year, it could be taking more time for the atmosphere to moisten enough before it produces rain, in other words it may be playing a part as to why we are seeing such little rain events in Duluth over the last few months.

A few other rainfall totals from Friday night-Saturday (September 11-12, 2020)

Ashland: 0.51″

Brainerd: 0.32″

International Falls: 0.15″

Hibbing: 0.14″

Thanks for reading!

Tim

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