Breezy, Mild and Smoky Tuesday; much cooler mid to late week

A warm front will be moving through the Northland tonight, but this should be a dry frontal passage, with the possible exception being along the North Shore of Lake Superior where isolated showers or patchy drizzle is possible tonight. There could also be some patchy fog around Lake Superior tonight as warmer air moves in.

Tuesday is shaping up to be a mild and breezy day across the Northland with highs ranging from around 70 to the lower 80s from north to south. Smoke will be widespread on Tuesday, although most of this smoke should remain in the upper levels of the atmosphere creating a hazy, milky appearance to the sun. A cold front will be moving SE across the Northland Tuesday afternoon and evening but a dry frontal passage is likely. Southwest winds ahead of this cold front will shift to the north-northwest after the cold front moves through. Windiest conditions should be over east-central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin on Tuesday with southwest winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts >30 mph likely.

Note: Cold front is not expected to move through the Twin Ports until Tuesday evening (after 7 PM) so it should be a warm day in Duluth on Tuesday with temps nearing 80 degrees during the afternoon (normal high is 65 degrees on September 15th) Winds are expected to change directions from east to southwest by Tuesday morning, so the warm temps should reach lakeshore areas on Tuesday.

Cooler weather on Wednesday with highs in the middle 50s to middle 60s, warmest temps from east-central Minnesota to northwest Wisconsin. Less smoke is expected on Wednesday thanks in part to the cold front moving through on Tuesday which should help push most of the smoke farther off to the south on Wednesday.

Frost and Freeze risks return to northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin later this week.

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Widespread wildfire smoke continues to move east into the Northland this afternoon, we’re also seeing some clouds lift NE out of east-central Minnesota, these clouds are near a warm front which will lift NE through the Northland tonight, and we’re also seeing some high level cloudiness approaching from the west late this afternoon.

Loop end time 5:16 PM, Monday, September 14, 2020.

Source: https://weather.cod.edu/

A lake breeze is keeping temperatures in the 50s near Lake Superior this afternoon while further inland temperatures have climbed into the 60s as of 3 PM Monday. Even warmer air is lurking to our west/southwest today, and the northern edge of this warm air mass will make its way into the Northland on Tuesday with highs getting into the 70s to lower 80s Tuesday afternoon.

Not much rain in the forecast for the Northland looking out the next 2 weeks as a dry weather pattern continues across our area.

Duluth’s precipitation deficit is now >8″ as of September 14th, and this number will continue to rise this week with no rain in the forecast until maybe sometime on Sunday.

Source: 12z European ensemble model 9.14.2020; https://weathermodels.com/

Although temperatures will be cooling off this week, warmer temperatures could return to the Northland next week per Euro and GEFS ensemble models.

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*4 PM Hurricane Sally Update*

Source: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Sally was located about 105 miles east of the Mouth Of The Mississippi River, or about 145 miles southeast of Biloxi, Mississippi.

Maximum sustained winds were at 100 mph

Movement was to the west-northwest at 6 mph

Minimum Central Pressure was 987mb/29.15 inches

Here’s a look at the expected track of Sally as of Monday afternoon. The pink outlined area represents were Hurricane Sally could make landfall sometime late Tuesday night or Wednesday morning as a strong Hurricane. The center of Sally looks to pass between Biloxi and Bayou La Batre, with Pascagoula possibly being ground zero for where Sally makes landfall (track could shift slightly east or west)

Impacts from Sally will occur well before landfall with heavy rain bands, strong winds and storm surge tonight and Tuesday.

Hurricane Sally as seen on Goes-16 Infrared Imagery Monday afternoon, September 14, 2020 – Loop time ends at 4:46 PM CT.

Source: https://weather.cod.edu/

Thanks for reading!

Tim

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