More snow or rain Thursday (significant snowfall possible) another system possible this weekend

I’m keeping an eye on another system which could bring another round of accumulating snow, rain and a mixture of precipitation to northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin on Thursday.

Computer model runs today have been trending toward the colder/further south solutions which the UK, Canadian and GFS models have been showing for a few days now, but there continues to be differences on where the rain/snow line sets up for Thursday as it will come down to surface temperatures and how far north the warm air gets.

Temperatures aloft have been trending colder per model guidance for Thursday, with 850mb and 925mb temps remaining below 0C across much of the Northland which would support frozen precipitation, but a strong NE wind off Lake Superior along with a surge of ‘warm’ air moving in from the SW may cause surface temps to warm into the mid 30s to low 40s close to Lake Superior and over most of northwest Wisconsin Thursday afternoon which would cause more rain than snow. It’s a tricky setup!

As it stands now…North-central and northeast Minnesota has the greatest chance of seeing all snow on Thursday and it could be a significant amount of snow, perhaps 4-6 inches or more!

Most of northwest Wisconsin looks warm enough (at the moment) where precipitation falls as rain on Thursday.

A mixture of rain, snow and possibly some sleet looks to setup across portions of east-central Minnesota and far northwest Wisconsin including Duluth and Superior on Thursday, but if the GFS and UK models are correct, then the Twin Ports would see mostly snow on Thursday since these models show surface temps remaining cold enough for snow, while other models show temps warming enough for more of a mix in the Twin Ports.

Thursday’s system also has a potential of producing a NE gale event over western Lake Superior along with wind gusts of 20 to 30 mph in Duluth and Superior.

Winter weather headlines will likely be issued for some parts of the Northland for the system on Thursday, these could be issued as early as Wednesday morning.

And if Thursday’s system isn’t enough, there are signs showing up in the models that we see another system this weekend, sometime Saturday or Sunday with more snow or rain across northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin, but there is a rather large spread in model guidance on how the weekend system will evolve/track so let’s get through tonight and Thursday’s systems first.

Stay tuned

Thanks for reading!

Tim

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