Cold tonight; milder temps mid to late week; a few chances for light snow through the weekend

  • Another cold night ahead tonight with lows ranging from around 10 below to 10 above zero.
  • Slightly milder on Tuesday with highs mainly in the teens, but after that we’re looking at daytime highs in the 20s and 30s for the mid to late week time frame.
  • A few chances for light snow/flurries through the weekend, but no major snow events the way it looks now.

Note: Snowfall total of 1.1″ at the Duluth Airport on Sunday, December 13, this is the greatest snowfall event we’ve seen in Duluth so far this month, and is also the first time since November 22 (3 weeks ago) with a 1″ or greater snowfall event. Sunday’s snowfall was a fluffy one, with only 0.05″ of liquid precip fluffing up to 1.1″ of snow, that’s a 22:1 snow-to-liquid ratio.

If we don’t record a subzero temp at the Duluth Airport tonight, then will likely have to wait until around or after Christmas for our next shot at getting a subzero temperature in Duluth. Overall it’s a mild temperature forecast into early next week after we get through tonight.

Source: https://weathermodels.com/

Check out how cold it is across central/northern Canada this afternoon, as cold as -25 to -40 F. The Northland is only getting a glancing blow from that arctic air mass today, plus there really isn’t a whole lot of deep snow pack in our area right now, so temps as a result are running a lot warmer when you compare them to what’s going on farther north today.

Also of note are the milder temps covering Alaska today, that’s usually how it works, when Alaska warms up that usually leads to colder weather for our area, and when it’s bitter cold in Alaska, that usually leads to milder temps in our area, but that’s not always the case.

It’s a tad chilly in parts of Russia as well today, with a temperature of -56 F at Yakutsk, Russia this afternoon.

Low Temperature Reports from Monday morning, December 14, 2020
Source: https://www.weather.gov/dlh/

Birchdale, MN: -10 F
Margie, MN: -8 F
Northome, MN: -7 F
Cass Lake, MN: -5 F
Littlefork, MN: -5 F
International Falls, MN: -5 F
Deer River, MN: -3 F
Walker, MN: -2 F
Hill City, MN: -2 F
Isabella, MN: -2 F
Kabetogama, MN: -2 F
Breezy Point, MN: -1 F
Eveleth, MN: 0 F
Ely, MN: 0 F
Cook, MN: 0 F
Bruno, MN: 0 F
Duluth Airport: 4 F
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We’re looking at a few days of southerly winds which begins on Tuesday, this will lead to a warm air advection pattern developing across the area, this combined with some weak lift will help produce a few areas of flurries and snow showers mostly over northern Minnesota and into the Arrowhead (black outlined area on map) beginning on Tuesday, and continuing into late Wednesday night. Snowfall accumulations look very light with most areas accumulating only an inch or less of snow through late Wednesday night, but an exception to this could be along the North Shore, especially from Taconite Harbor, northeast to Hovland where a few inches of snow is possible Tuesday and Wednesday due to some lake effect potential (S wind)

18z NAM 3km model simulated radar forecast valid from 6 AM Tuesday to Midnight Thursday.

Source: https://weather.cod.edu/

A powerful Nor’easter is taking shape today over the Southern Rockies, this system is forecast to move ENE through Thursday, with heavy snow and possible blizzard conditions developing over parts of the Mid-Atlantic and northeast US from Wednesday into Thursday.

Note: Water vapor loop from 2:26 PM to 5:21 PM CT, Monday, December 14, 2020.

Source: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/

Here’s what the National Weather Service is forecasting in terms of snowfall with the midweek Nor’easter. Potential for 12-18+” of snow for parts of the Mid-Atlantic and northeast US.

Source: https://weathermodels.com/

Tim

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