Blustery and cold tonight and Monday; milder mid to late week; light snow ends early tonight; some sun Monday

  • Light snow ends from west to east this evening with total snowfall accumulations of an inch or less across northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.
  • Turning colder tonight with lows ranging from around 5 below to 5 above across the area.
  • Highs on Monday only in the single digits and teens, a below normal day for a change!
  • Here in Duluth we’ve had zero days with a minimum temp <0 F so far in December 2020, average in December is 9 subzero days. If we don’t get a subzero temp tonight or Monday night, then it looks like will have to wait until sometime later this month (after Christmas) for another chance at a subzero temperature.

Snow has been on the light side this afternoon (small flakes) but a few pockets of brief heavier snowfall has been occurring (larger flakes) green colors on image below. This snow continues to move off to the east and should come to an end by this evening.

Near to below normal temperatures in Duluth on Monday and Tuesday, and then we go back above normal again from Wednesday through next weekend (December 16-21)

Source: https://weathermodels.com/

We’ve got some arctic air moving into the Northland over the next 24 hours. Check out these temperatures across western/central Canada from early Sunday afternoon, temps as cold as 25 to 40 below in parts of northwest Canada today, brr! Once this air mass reaches our area it will modify quite a bit due in part to a lack of snow cover in our area, but it still looks pretty chilly through Tuesday, especially when you compare it to how warm this December has been up to this point.

Not quite cold enough for wind chill headlines, but we are looking at some pretty cold wind chills late tonight into Monday morning, ranging from around zero to -10 degrees across the Northland per European computer model.

Source: https://weathermodels.com/

71% of days between November 15 and December 12 have had an above average temperature at Duluth, Minnesota, with only 29% of days during that same period featuring a below average temperature.

Source: https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/

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Latest drought monitor as of December 10, 2020 shows much of the Northern Plains and upper Midwest in drought conditions, this will be something to keep an eye on as we head through 2021, and especially once we get into spring 2021. Note: Duluth is running -10.00″ below normal in precipitation in 2020, and this deficit will carry over into 2021, so either we’re going to turn real wet in coming months, and start chipping away at this deficit, or drought conditions are going to worsen in 2021, we really don’t have many other options.

  • ~77% of Minnesota is Abnormally Dry as of December 10, this is up from ~27% three months ago.
  • ~11% of Minnesota is in Moderate drought (D1)
  • Things are better in Wisconsin, with only 20% of the state Abnormally Dry as of December 10 which is up from 16% three months ago.

Note: Dark orange and red colors on the map below indicate severe (D2) to extreme (D3) drought conditions.

Source: https://www.pivotalweather.com/; https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/

Active storm track this week extending from the southern Plains to eastern US with the southern branch of the jet stream, while for us in the Northland its all about weak systems embedded in the northern branch of the jet.

After today’s light snowfall event wraps up, our next one comes Tuesday/Wednesday when scattered light snows will be possible, but any snow that falls looks to remain on the light to very light side the way it looks now.

Here’s the 500mb vorticity forecast per 18z NAM model thru Midnight Thursday, December 17, 2020.

Source: https://weather.cod.edu/

Tim

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