Bitterly cold temperatures continue into early next week; Warmer trends showing up later this month

Good news/Bad news – We’re finally seeing the core of the coldest air shift slowly south out of western and central Canada, and this trend will continue through this weekend as the coldest air moves over the upper Midwest and Great Lakes, so this part is good, at least we’re finally seeing the upper low (polar vortex begin to move) The bad news is that the next few days will continue to be rough, as bitterly cold temperatures continue at least through Sunday and probably even into Monday. I think there is a pretty good chance that overnight/morning temperatures in a few spots across northern Minnesota will drop to -50 this weekend, while daytime highs from Friday through Sunday will only be in the -2 to -15 degree range.

Note: Record Cold High Temperature set at Hibbing, Minnesota today, February 11, 2021, with a high today of -6 F. The old record cold high for February 11 was -4 F set in 1967 and 1981.

  • Duluth, Brainerd, Hibbing, Ashland and International Falls all had high temperatures today which ranked in the top 3 coldest on record for February 11th.

…Record Lows for February 12th…

  • Hibbing, MN: -42 F set in 1967
  • International Falls, MN: -40 F set in 1914
  • Brainerd, MN: -38 F set in 1981
  • Ashland, WI: -35 F set in 1967
  • Duluth, MN: -33 F set in 1875

A few snow showers and flurries will be found across parts of the Northland tonight into Friday morning, but with how cold and dry the air mass is, I don’t think will be seeing much snow accumulation, maybe up to a half inch to an inch at most in parts of northwest Wisconsin and far eastern Minnesota, otherwise a very dry pattern continues well into next week the way it looks now.

Look at these temperatures late this afternoon! Crazy cold over such a large area. Many locations in North Dakota, Montana, Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba are only in the teens and 20s below zero this afternoon!

Water vapor loop from Thursday, February 11, 2021.

Source: https://weather.cod.edu/

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More of the same!

A Wind Chill Advisory is in effect until Noon Sunday for all of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin including the cities of International Falls, Bigfork, Grand Rapids, Cass Lake, Walker, Brainerd, Aitkin, Hill City, McGregor, Pine City, Hinckley, Moose Lake, Cloquet, Duluth, Hibbing, Ely, Two Harbors, Isabella, Silver Bay, Grand Marais, Superior, Solon Springs, Washburn, Bayfield, Ashland, Hurley, Danbury, Grantsburg, Siren, Minong, Shell Lake, Spooner, Hayward and Winter. Wind chills as low as 35 below to 40 below zero. The dangerously cold wind chills could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 10 minutes.

Average temperatures so far this month are running 8 to 10 degrees colder than normal across the Northland.

Stats below show the average temp and departure from normal from Feb. 1-10, 2021.

Hibbing, MN: -1.6 F; -10.5 degrees below normal

International Falls, MN: -0.9 F; -8.0 degrees below normal

Duluth, MN: 2.7 F; -9.6 degrees below normal

Brainerd, MN: 3.4 F; -10.1 degrees below normal

Ashland, WI: 6.5 F; -8.7 degrees below normal

Coldest Februaries on record

  • Brainerd, MN: -6.2 F set in 1904
  • International Falls, MN: -3.4 F set in 1917
  • Duluth, MN: -2.1 F set in 1875
  • Hibbing, MN: 0.1 F set in 1967
  • Ashland, WI: 2.1 F set in 1936

Source: https://mrcc.illinois.edu/CLIMATE/

Low Temperature Reports from around the Northland from Thursday morning, February 11, 2021

Source: https://www.weather.gov/dlh/

  • Cotton, MN: -46 F
  • 25 E Ely, MN: -44 F
  • Ash Lake, MN: -41 F
  • Kabetogama, MN: -40 F
  • Seagull Lake, MN: -40 F
  • 6 WSW Beaver Bay, MN: -38 F
  • Babbitt, MN: -38 F
  • Embarrass, MN: -38 F
  • Effie, MN: -37 F
  • Bigfork, MN: -36 F
  • Northome, MN: -36 F
  • International Falls, MN: -36 F
  • Crane Lake, MN: -36 F
  • Cook, MN: -35 F
  • Ely, MN: -35 F
  • Littlefork, MN: -35 F
  • Ball Bluff, MN: -35 F
  • Chisholm-Hibbing Airport: -33 F
  • Bruno, MN: -32 F
  • Twig, MN: -32 F
  • Saginaw, MN: -31 F
  • Longville, MN: -31 F
  • Barnes, WI: -31 F
  • Cass Lake, MN: -30 F
  • Glidden, WI: -30 F
  • Minong, WI: -30 F
  • Deer River, MN: -29 F
  • Cloquet, MN: -29 F
  • Hinckley, MN: -29 F
  • Hayward, WI: -29 F
  • 3 E Wright, MN: -28 F
  • Hill City, MN: -28 F
  • Siren, WI: -28 F
  • South Range, WI: -28 F
  • Solon Springs, WI: -27 F
  • Moose Lake, MN: -26 F
  • Grand Rapids, MN: -26 F
  • Isabella, MN: -26 F
  • Danbury, WI: -26 F
  • Brainerd, MN: -26 F
  • McGregor, MN: -24 F
  • Grand Marais Airport: -24 F
  • Pine River, MN: -24 F
  • Moose Lake, MN: -24 F
  • Esko, MN: -23 F
  • Superior Airport: -23 F
  • Duluth Airport: -23 F
  • Breezy Point, MN: -21 F
  • Washburn, WI: -21 F
  • Two Harbors, MN: -18 F
  • Duluth Sky Harbor Airport: -17 F
  • Ashland, WI: -16 F
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Warmer times ahead? It’s going to take a while, but a big time warmup is possible per Euro ensemble data toward the final week of February, whether this actually happens or not remains to be seen since we’re talking about something 10+ days down the road. Plus, the GEFS model although milder toward the end of the month, isn’t nearly as warm as what the EPS model is showing. Stay tuned.

Could be talking about several days at or above 40 degrees in the Northland later this month if the forecast below verifies.

Source: https://weathermodels.com/

Tim

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