Turning more humid with occasional showers and a few thunderstorms the next few days

It does look like the weather pattern will be turning more active across the upper Midwest including here in the Northland for the rest of May with several chances for rain ahead.

Spring 2021 started out wet in the Northland, and this was followed by a few weeks of mostly dry weather which will be followed by a wet end to spring 2021. Either too wet or too dry around here lately.

  • The rain the next few days won’t be continuous, in fact we should have many dry hours mixed in through early Friday morning, but expect rain showers at times from tonight through early Friday morning, and when it’s not raining we could see some patchy clearing across the Northland.
  • High temps across the Northland for Wednesday, Thursday and Friday will remain on the mild side, topping out in the 65 to 78 degree range with cooler temperatures likely closer to Lake Superior.
  • Some fog and or haze is possible near Lake Superior over the next few days due to a lake breeze along with a more humid air mass which will arrive mid to late week.
  • A few thunderstorms are also possible in the Northland from late Wednesday thru Thursday night as we see an increase in instability, but these storms are not expected to be severe as the amount of instability looks to be pretty low at the moment.

18z NAM 3km model simulated radar forecast valid thru 1 AM Friday.

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Here’s the probabilities for a half inch or more of rain thru Friday evening per 12z Euro ensemble model. Note: Highest chances for a half inch or more of rain in yellow, orange and red colors on the map below.

And a look at the probabilities for an inch or more of rain thru Friday evening per 12z Euro ensemble model.

Around a half inch or more of rain is forecast to fall across most of the Northland thru Friday evening.

Note: We’ve only had 0.01″ of rain so far this month in Duluth. Normal for May is 3.23″. The last time Duluth picked up a quarter inch or more of rain was on April 26th, over 3 weeks ago!

Above normal precipitation is forecast in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin over the next two weeks.

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…Wildfires…

At least four wildfires (outlined in yellow) are burning this afternoon with smoke plumes showing up nicely on Goes-16 visible satellite imagery today, Tuesday, May 18, 2021.

Smoke plume from the wildfire burning northwest of Ely, Minnesota has been showing up nicely on Duluth’s doppler radar today.

Tim

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