Record/Near Record Warmth on the way through Sunday; cooler lake breezes at times closer to Lake Superior; a few showers/t-storms possible this weekend

…Record Highs likely to be broken in the Northland on Friday…

Here are the record high temperatures for June 4th

Ashland, WI: 92 set in 1968

International Falls, MN: 92 set in 1988

Duluth, MN: 90 set in 1968

Brainerd, MN: 89 set in 1988

Hibbing, MN: 88 set in 1988

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A Fire Weather Watch is in effect from Friday afternoon through Friday evening for wind and low relative humidity for parts of northeast Minnesota including International Falls, Bigfork, Grand Rapids, Cass Lake, Walker, Brainerd, Hibbing, Ely and Isabella.

Southwest wind 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph.

Relative humidity as low as 20 percent.

Temperatures in the low to mid 90s, possibly as warm as 96 or 97 degrees.

These conditions are supportive of rapid fire growth. Red Flag Warnings may be needed for Friday.

A big time heat dome (ridge) currently over the western US will continue to spread further east/southeast into the upper Midwest over the next few days.

About the only thing/s that could keep temperature a bit cooler this weekend would be for more cloud cover than what is currently expected, and any showers and thunderstorms which may develop from Friday night through Sunday night.

A warm front swings NE across our area on Friday, but no precipitation is expected as this front moves through. Then will see a cold front/stationary front drape itself across northern Minnesota and over Lake Superior Saturday and Sunday. There is a chance that we could see a few showers and thunderstorms develop near and north of that boundary Saturday and again Sunday afternoon/night. If any stronger storms were to occur this weekend, Sunday would hold the best chance for that to happen since will have stronger winds aloft over the Northland and better wind shear along with a decent amount of moisture and instability and somewhat better mid level lapse rates. Very warm temperatures aloft will also be in place, however, and this could make it quite difficult for thunderstorms to either develop or sustain themselves if they do develop Saturday and or Sunday.

Here’s the 18z NAM 3km model simulated radar forecast valid from 1 PM Friday to 1 AM Sunday.

Note: The greatest chance for any showers and thunderstorms Friday would be over far northern Minnesota, near the Ontario border, and those chances are highest Friday evening/early Saturday morning.

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…Drought Update as of June 1st, 2021…

No big changes in this week’s drought monitor for Minnesota.

  • 13% of the state remains in D1 or Moderate Drought (light orange)
  • 73% of the state is Abnormally Dry (yellow)

Drought has worsen a bit in parts of Wisconsin this week.

  • 5% of the state is in D2 or Severe Drought (darker orange) this is up from 0.18% last week
  • 25% of the state is in D1 or Moderate Drought (lighter orange) this is up from 24% last week
  • 50% of the state remains Abnormally Dry (yellow)

North Dakota continues to be in rough shape when it comes to drought conditions.

  • 17% of the state is in D4 or Exceptional Drought (dark red)
  • 76% of the state is in D3 or Extreme Drought (red)
  • 92% of the state is in D2 or Severe Drought (dark orange)
  • 98% of the state is in D1 or Moderate Drought (light orange)
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Looking ahead to next week’s upper level pattern shows a trough out west and a ridge to our south/east, this will lead to a SW mid/upper level flow for the upper Midwest which will likely result in warm to very warm temperatures sticking around next week, although its likely that we will see an east wind on some days next week, and when those occur temperatures will likely be quite a bit cooler within about 10 miles of Lake Superior.

As for rain chances…We could be dealing with a few afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms due to daytime heating, a humid air mass and a buildup of instability next week, but at the moment it doesn’t look like will be seeing any widespread heavy rain or severe weather.

Tim

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