Warm weather continues this week (cooler at times near Lake Superior) A few showers/t-storms possible, but a lot of us stay dry thru midweek

A very warm weather pattern lingers this week with daytime highs in the Northland in the 80s to lower 90s, but we will have some days which will have an easterly wind, and when that happens, temperatures will be a lot cooler within about 10 to 15 miles of Lake Superior (highs in the 50s and 60s) Right now Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday look to be the days this week which could feature much cooler temperatures near Lake Superior.

Rain chances continue to be on the low side much of this week, in fact much of the area will likely stay dry at least thru Wednesday, but chances for some showers and thunderstorms do increase Monday night and Tuesday, but mainly affecting northern Minnesota (north of Duluth)

Note: If you go back to 2020’s precipitation deficit (-9.70″ below normal) and add it on to where were at so far in 2021, Duluth is running -11.13″ below normal in precipitation, that’s not good.

18z NAM 3km model simulated radar forecast valid from 1 PM Monday to 7 AM Tuesday.

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  • The most 90 degree days on record in June in Duluth was in 1910 which had 7 days at or above 90. We’ve had 2 days at or above 90 so far this June. Normal number of 90 degree days in June is zero.
  • Duluth has already recorded 4 days at or above 80 so far this month (thru June 6th) Normal number of 80 degree days in June is 5 days. Greatest number of 80 degree days in June is 17 set in 1910.
  • Brainerd, Minnesota reached 100 degrees on Friday, June 4th, 2021 – The last time Brainerd had a high temp of at least 100 degrees in June was in 1988 (19th) high of 100 degrees.

So what’s going on with this weather? That’s an excellent question, unfortunately I don’t really know, all I do know is that the pattern has been really really weird over the last year or so. Perhaps this is the new normal? Extremes, lots of wind, going from hot temps (well above average) to much cooler temps (well below average) Weeks of above normal temps, followed by weeks of below normal temps. Periods of dry weather (‘flash droughts’) to periods of wet weather. A lack of thunderstorms and severe weather (the new normal?)

Fire danger for today, Sunday, June 6th, 2021 was rated as Extreme (red) in parts of northern Minnesota to Very High in areas in orange on the map below.

A Fire Weather Watch is in effect from Monday morning through Monday evening for wind and low relative humidity for portions of northern Minnesota. An upgrade to a Red Flag Warning is possible in parts of northern Minnesota by Monday morning.

Here’s a look at how much rain could fall thru Wednesday evening.

For the Northland – The greatest rain chances will be confined to far northern areas closer to the Ontario border where up to a quarter inch or so of rain is possible thru Wednesday.

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Rainfall totals since May 5th have ranged from only around a half an inch at International Falls and Brainerd, to 2 to around 4 inches in southern portions of northwest Wisconsin.

Much of north-central Minnesota is a tinderbox right now, with rainfall totals since May 5th running just 10 to 15% of normal while things a little better (for now) in northwest Wisconsin and far eastern Minnesota.

…Rainfall Totals/Percent of Normal from May 5th to June 5th, 2021…

Brainerd, MN: 0.50″; 12% of normal

International Falls, MN: 0.47″; 14% of normal

Hibbing, MN: 0.94″; 31% of normal

Embarrass, MN: 1.34″; 40% of normal

Superior, WI: 1.47″; 41% of normal

Duluth, MN: 1.94″; 54% of normal

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…Record Highs have been broken in the Northland over the last few days…

June 4th, 2021

Brainerd, MN: New record high 100 degrees; old record was 89 degrees set in 1988.

International Falls, MN: New record high 98 degrees; old record was 92 degrees set in 1988.

Hibbing, MN: New record high 95 degrees; old record was 88 degrees set in 1988.

Duluth, MN: New record high 94 degrees; old record was 90 degrees set in 1968.

Ashland, WI: New record high 93 degrees; old record was 92 degrees set in 1968.

June 5th, 2021

Brainerd, MN: New record high 96 degrees; old record was 92 degrees set in 1952.

Duluth, MN: New record high 94 degrees; old record was 88 degrees set in 1925.

Hibbing, MN: New record high 94 degrees; old record was 90 degrees set in 1988.

Ashland, WI: New record high 94 degrees; old record was 93 degrees set in 1988.

Record Warmth has been widespread the last few days (June 3-6, 2021) from the Northern Plains to the upper Midwest and Great Lakes and into the northeast US with all those yellow, orange, red and magenta like colors on the animation below representing locations which broke, tied or came within a few degrees of their daily record high temps, and in some instances their record highest temperature.

Tim

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