Cool tonight; A few showers far north on Tuesday; 80s return Wednesday

  • Rainfall total of 1.06″ at the Duluth Airport on June 20th, 2021 was the greatest calendar day precipitation event in Duluth since November 9th, 2020 (1.18″ of precipitation)

The least amount of rain with Sunday’s system was in the far northwest portion of the area (International Falls area) where rainfall totals were <0.25″. Highest totals were in northwest Wisconsin, and also in eastern Minnesota and along the North Shore of Lake Superior with rain totals in the 1 to nearly 2″ range on Sunday.

Rainfall totals this month are still running 1 to nearly 2 inches below normal across the Northland.

Rainfall Anomalies for June 2021 (thru 4 PM on the 21st)

Ashland, WI: -1.89″ below normal

Hibbing, MN: -1.89″ below normal

Brainerd, MN: -1.88″ below normal

Duluth, MN: -1.41″ below normal

International Falls, MN: -1.19″ below normal

The good news is that much of the Northland received a decent amount of rain on Sunday, but looking at the bigger picture reveals more of the same, and that’s a pattern which continues to look pretty dry for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin over the next two weeks, this has been a common theme around here for quite some time where will get into these lengthy dry spells, sometimes going 2 or even 3 weeks between a decent precipitation event (quarter inch or more) that’s not a good thing to go that long between rain events especially during the spring and summer when things can dry out more quickly due to it being much warmer.

Typically during the spring and summer you need to get about an inch of rain per week to keep drought away.

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A quiet severe weather season continues across the Northland, with only 11 total warnings issued so far this year in the NWS Duluth forecast area.

2021 continues the trend of the past few years which were also on the quiet side in terms of severe weather around here thru June 21st.

The highest convective risk we’ve been under in the Northland so far this year has been a Slight Risk which was back on June 7th, but the Northland has only been under a Slight Risk three times since April. Again this just shows you how quiet it’s been in terms of severe weather around here so far this year.

By the way convective risks by the Storm Prediction Center include

Marginal (lowest risk, a 1)

Slight (2)

Enhanced (3)

Moderate (4)

High (5)

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A cool late June day in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin, but not record setting cold with highs topping out at around 60 today which is a good 10-15 degrees below normal for June 21st.

Highs Tuesday will range from the lower 60s to middle 70s (coolest in the tip of the Arrowhead, warmest around the Brainerd Lakes)

Note: Temperatures early Tuesday morning could dip into the 30s in the typical cold spots across northeastern Minnesota with a chance for patchy frost, but I don’t think any of the climate locations in the Northland will set any record lows Tuesday morning as those are in the low to mid 30s.

Isolated showers or sprinkles will come to an end across the Northland this evening, and then on Tuesday we could see a few showers mainly affecting far northern portions of Minnesota (Borderland and Arrowhead)

18z NAM 3km model simulated radar forecast ending 7 PM Tuesday.

Doesn’t look like will be getting much rain this week in northeast Minnesota or northwest Wisconsin, but a cold front moving through the area Wednesday night-Thursday could produce a few showers or thunderstorms, but coverage of that activity looks pretty isolated at the moment.

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The upper Midwest will remain in a NW flow aloft this week, but temperatures will be warming up by mid to late week as we get some heat to push ESE out of the Northern Rockies.

Next week’s pattern could be a warm one for the Northland, but it will depend on where that trough sets up, and how far north that ridge can build across the Southern/Central Rockies.

Tim

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