Warm Wednesday with isolated afternoon-evening showers possible; Breezy and cooler near Lake Superior Thursday; Very warm and dry 4th of July weekend

The average temperature so far this month at Duluth, Minnesota is 66.3 degrees (+5.5 degrees above average)

The warmest June on record in Duluth is 65.5 degrees which was set in 1910. Note: June 2021 is on track to become the warmest June on record in Duluth, with records going back to 1874.

Looks like will add one more 80 degree day to this month’s total which is currently sitting at 13 days at or above 80 in Duluth. If we do hit 80 on Wednesday, this would put June 2021 at 14 days at or above 80, and this would tie with June 1933 for 2nd place for greatest number of 80 degree days in the month of June. The record is 17 days set in 1910. By the way Duluth typically only gets 5 days at or above 80 in June, so we’re well above normal this June!

Note: Normal highs in Duluth from June 30th to July 9th ranges from 76 to 77 degrees, with a normal low of 55 degrees.

Several wildfires (orange and yellow icons) are burning across western Ontario province, and smoke plumes from those fires may drift over parts of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin Wednesday and Thursday.

The HRRR smoke model forecast does show higher levels of wildfire smoke moving south/east across the Northland on Wednesday.

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The mega ridge which has brought very hot temperatures and record breaking heat to the Pacific Northwest the last few days will be moving east-southeast into the Northern Plains and upper Midwest late this week into this weekend. The 4th of July weekend is looking very warm across the Northland as this ridge moves over us.

500mb Height Anomaly Forecast through 7 AM Sunday, July 4, 2021.

Temperature Anomaly Forecast valid from Friday, July 2, 2021 through Monday, July 5, 2021 — Red and White colors on the animation below represent well above normal temperatures, while green and blue colors represent well below normal temperatures.

High Temperature Forecast valid from Wednesday, June 30, 2021 through Sunday, July 4, 2021.

Wednesday is looking warm across northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin with highs mainly in the 80s.

Thursday will feature much cooler temps near Lake Superior (60s) along with a gusty NE wind, but farther inland expect another mild day with highs in the 70s to lower 80s.

Mid 70s to mid 80s for highs Friday, and then will see mid 80s to low 90s for Saturday and Sunday, while parts of southwest Minnesota could be up close to 100 Sunday afternoon.

Note: It doesn’t look too humid Friday or Saturday with dew points generally in the 50s, but humidity levels could climb a bit on the 4th of July with dew points possibly getting into the 60s.

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Another day of scattered downpours and thunderstorms across northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin with rainfall totals today ranging from a half inch to nearly 2″ (purple colors) per radar estimates.

…24 Hour Rainfall Reports

Source: https://mesowest.utah.edu/

Note: Totals listed below are for the 24 hour period ending 4 PM Tuesday, June 29, 2021.

  • Saginaw, MN: 1.31″
  • 1 W Washburn, WI: 1.10″ (Rainfall total in 15 minutes from 2:40-2:55 PM 6/29)
  • Moose Lake, MN: 0.70″
  • Hayward, WI: 0.34″
  • Isabella, MN: 0.33″
  • Two Harbors, MN: 0.29″
  • Hinckley, MN: 0.22″
  • Ashland, WI: 0.20″
  • Siren, WI: 0.20″
  • Cloquet, MN: 0.13″
  • Aitkin, MN: 0.13″
  • Solon Springs, WI: 0.06″
  • Clam Lake, WI: 0.04″
  • Duluth Airport: 0.03″
  • Superior Airport: 0.03″
  • Ely, MN: 0.03″
  • Grand Marais, MN: 0.02″
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Radar loop from Tuesday, June 29, 2021 (Loop time 9:23 AM to 5:09 PM)

A quiet early morning in the Northland which was followed by a blossoming of scattered showers and thunderstorms with torrential downpours in spots along with some cloud to ground lightning. Shower and thunderstorm coverage will diminish this evening and will end overnight.

A cold front will move south across the Northland Wednesday afternoon and evening, but there won’t be a whole lot of moisture, lift or instability in place as this front moves through, so we’re only looking at a chance for a few isolated showers or thunderstorms in our area Wednesday afternoon and evening.

18z NAM 3km model simulated radar forecast valid from Noon Wednesday to Midnight Wednesday.

Tim

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