Mild Thursday, but cooler and breezy near Lake Superior (NE wind) Very warm and dry this weekend with record/near record warmth possible

It’s getting to be that time of the year where a northeast wind coming off Lake Superior isn’t quite as chilly as it would be say just a few weeks to a month ago, and this is thanks to much warmer water temperatures on Lake Superior as we head deeper into the summer.

Check out the surface water temps at the head of Lake Superior as of June 30, 2021 – Generally in the mid to upper 60s (balmy!) with even some 70s showing up right at the southwest arm of Lake Superior today.

Looking further out over Lake Superior shows surface water temps generally in the mid 50s to mid 60s. A northeast wind over the next 24 hours will cause some upwelling which will lead to some cooling of the water temps over Lake Superior, but since this NE wind event will be pretty brief, I don’t think the water temps will drop a whole lot.

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…Record Warmth possible in the Northland this 4th of July weekend…

Record Highs for July 3

Duluth, MN: 93 set in 2020

International Falls, MN: 92 set in 2020

Hibbing, MN: 92 set in 1990

Record Highs for July 4

Duluth, MN: 95 set in 1881

International Falls, MN: 90 set in 2020

Hibbing, MN: 90 set in 1988

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The heat is on starting Friday, but more so Saturday and Sunday, this is when we should see widespread mid 80s to mid 90s for daytime highs in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin, while overnight lows only drop to around 65 to 70, and it might even be warmer than that especially in the urban heat islands like in Duluth and Superior.

Rain chances are slim to none from Thursday through most of the day Sunday, but a cold front approaching from the NW could produce a few isolated showers or thunderstorms Sunday night or Monday.

High temperature forecast valid from Thursday, July 1, 2021 through Monday, July 5, 2021.

June 2021 is one for the record books as it will finish as the hottest June ever at Duluth, Minnesota. Weather records for Duluth go back to 1874.

25/30 or 83% of days this month had an above average temperature in Duluth, with just 5/30 or 17% of days being below average.

June 2021 finished in the top 10 warmest Junes on record in many climate districts from the Northern Plains to upper Midwest (darker red colors)

Rainfall totals varied considerably in June 2021, with much of the Northern Plains and upper Midwest remaining very dry with several climate districts recording a top 10 driest June on record (darker brown colors) While wetter conditions were found over the Midwest (green colors) with a few climate districts in Lower Michigan recording their wettest or a top 5 wettest June on record.

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Several wildfires continue to burn across central and western Canada today, and smoke plumes off those fires to our NW have been drifting south into parts of Minnesota today, and we may be dealing with additional wildfire smoke at times across the area over the next few days.

Active fires burning over parts of eastern Manitoba and western Ontario province (yellow outlined area) today.

Other large wildfires continue to burn over southern British Columbia today, with even some pyrocumulus clouds exploding this afternoon (yellow outlined area) due to strong upward motion near those fires.

Tim

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