A very warm weekend ahead with record/near record warmth; A few showers/t-storms possible Sunday

The last time Duluth, Minnesota reached at least 90 degrees on the 4th of July was 140 years ago in 1881 (high of 95), this also happens to be the only 90 degree or warmer temperature on record in Duluth on the 4th of July. I think we’re going to hit 90 this 4th of July, so let’s make it two!

…Record/Near Record Warmth possible in the Northland this weekend…

Record Highs for July 3rd

Brainerd, MN: 98 set in 1990

Ashland, WI: 96 set in 1949

Duluth, MN: 93 set in 2020

International Falls, MN: 92 set in 2020

Hibbing, MN: 92 set in 1990

Record Highs for July 4th

Brainerd, MN: 97 set in 1988

Ashland, WI; 95 set in 1990

Duluth, MN: 95 set in 1881

International Falls, MN: 90 set in 2020

Hibbing, MN: 90 set in 1988

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High temperature forecast valid Friday, July 2, 2021 to Monday, July 5, 2021.

925mb temperatures are looking mighty toasty the next few days, as they climb from around +20 to +25C on Friday, to +25 to around +30C on Saturday, and similar temps are likely for Sunday too.

925mb temperature forecast valid from 7 PM Thursday to 7 PM Saturday.

A pretty dry air mass will be with us on Friday with dew points only in the 50s to around 60, but a muggier air mass may develop this weekend with widespread 60 to 65 degree dew points possible Saturday and Sunday with even some upper 60s dew points possible by Sunday afternoon.

Dew point temperature forecast valid from 1 PM Friday through 7 PM Sunday.

Dry weather is likely in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin Friday, Saturday and most of the day Sunday, but a cold front approaching the area from the west could trigger a few showers and thunderstorms in our area late Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. Note: Severe weather looks unlikely at the moment as winds aloft and wind shear look pretty weak over the upper Midwest while mid level lapse rates look poor as well, but there should be enough moisture and instability in place to help develop a few storms assuming there is enough lift with the cold front on Sunday.

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A scary situation unfolding across parts of western and central Canada with widespread wildfires currently burning.

In British Columbia alone their have been >60 fires in just the last 2 days, with >100 fires reported so far this week.

Several new fires started in BC on Wednesday due to pyrocumulus thunderstorm activity which produced incredible amounts of lightning but little to no rain.

All those red dots on the map below represent active wildfires (hot spots) as of July 1, 2021.

Note: Wildfire smoke will likely drift over parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin through this weekend due to the fires burning over western Ontario province, and we may even start to tap into some wildfire smoke due to the fires burning over the Pacific Northwest and over western parts of Canada.

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It’s drought update Thursday

Here’s a look at the latest drought monitor as of June 29, 2021.

Drought conditions have worsen a bit across Minnesota this week.

Minnesota

  • 11% of the state is in D2 or Severe Drought (dark orange) this is down from 13% last week.
  • 82% of the state is in D1 or Moderate Drought (light orange) this is up from 74% last week.
  • 100% of the state is Abnormally Dry, this is unchanged from last week.

Some improvement in drought conditions in Wisconsin this week.

Wisconsin

  • 0.81% of the state is in D3 or Extreme Drought (red) this is unchanged from last week.
  • 2% of the state is in D2 or Severe Drought (dark orange) this is down from 6% last week.
  • 35% of the state is in D1 or Moderate Drought (light orange) this is down from 51% last week.
  • 63% of the state is Abnormally Dry, this is down from 76% last week.

There’s been some improvement in drought conditions in the Midwest this week.

  • 0.20% of the Midwest is in D3 or Extreme Drought (red) this is unchanged from last week.
  • 6% of the Midwest is in D2 or Severe Drought (dark orange) this is down from 10% last week.
  • 30% of the Midwest is in D1 or Moderate Drought (light orange) this is down from 36% last week.
  • 48% of the Midwest is Abnormally Dry, this is down from 54% last week.

A little improvement (but not much) in drought conditions in North Dakota this week.

North Dakota

  • 17% of the state is in D4 or Exceptional Drought (dark red) this is unchanged from last week.
  • 60% of the state is in D3 or Extreme Drought (red) this is down from 63% last week.
  • 90% of the state is in D2 or Severe Drought (dark orange) this is down from 93% last week.
  • 100% of the state is in D1 or Moderate Drought, and is Abnormally Dry. Both are unchanged from last week.

0-100 cm Soil Moisture map shows very dry conditions continuing over much of the Northern Plains and upper Midwest with soil moisture running from <2% to 10% in the red and dark orange colored areas.

Tim

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