Very warm and humid Sunday with some showers/t-storms possible at times; Warm but dry Monday; Much cooler with some rain possible Tuesday

• Quiet weather continues this evening in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin with warm temperatures.
• Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible after Midnight tonight and continuing throughout Sunday morning, mostly across northern Minnesota. These storms are not expected to be severe, but some lightning, wind gusts to 35 mph and heavy downpours are possible with this activity late tonight/Sunday morning.
• Additional scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast to redevelop late Sunday afternoon and or Sunday evening across all of the Northland. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible with this activity, but this will depend on the amount of instability that can build up during the afternoon, but there is potential for CAPE to peak in the 1000-2500 J/kg range by late Sunday afternoon.
• Will likely have enough moisture and instability for storms on Sunday, but widespread severe weather is unlikely due to poor mid level lapse rates, generally weak winds aloft and low amounts of wind shear, but an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm (Marginal severe weather risk for all of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin Sunday) can’t be ruled out with the main threats from damaging wind gusts to 60 mph and large hail to quarter size (1″ diameter) Dangerous lightning and heavy downpours will also occur in/near any thunderstorm Sunday afternoon and evening.

Two disturbances off to our west (yellow arrows) this afternoon will be moving east and will affect the Northland’s weather for Sunday.

Goes-16 visible satellite loop from Saturday, July 3, 2021.

Here’s a look at two computer model radar simulation forecasts valid from 1 AM tonight to 1 AM Monday.

18z NAM 3km model

18z HRRR model

Rainfall totals of 0.10″ to 0.50″ are possible in parts of the Northland Sunday into Sunday night, and as is often the case with thunderstorms, there is potential for higher rainfall amounts approaching an inch in a few locations.

Note: Another system could impact our area on Tuesday, and again in the Thursday night/Friday time frame, both systems could bring widespread rain to northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

Sunday still looks very warm to hot across the Northland, but how hot we get will depend on how much sun there is, and also on the potential for lingering outflow boundaries (cooler outflow winds) and where those setup which would be left behind from overnight/morning convection.

At the very least we are looking at daytime highs on Sunday in the low 80s to low 90s in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin, with the warmest temps across southern portions of the area, from around the Brainerd Lakes east to Hinckley and into parts of northwest Wisconsin, those areas could push into the mid 90s Sunday afternoon.

Widespread 80s in our area on Monday, and then we cool off significantly on Tuesday when highs will only be in the 60s to low 70s, and those temps will likely occur early in the day, we could actually see temps fall a bit throughout the day Tuesday, with some areas possibly struggling to get out of the mid or upper 50s the way it looks now.

Note: It will be turning more humid in the Northland on Sunday as dew points climb into the 60s, and possibly up around 70 by late Sunday afternoon.

High Temperature forecast valid from Sunday, July 4, 2021 thru Tuesday, July 6, 2021.

Tim