~75% of Minnesota in Severe Drought; Wildfire smoke lingers through Saturday (air quality alert in effect) A few showers/t-storms possible late Friday night-Saturday, otherwise mainly dry into early next week

Published by

Timothy Burr

on

July 29, 2021

An Air Quality Alert is in effect until 3 PM Friday for pretty much all of Minnesota as wildfire smoke continues to impact the state which is leading to unhealthy air quality conditions.

Smoke has been reducing visibilities across the Northland today – Visibility reports as of 5 PM Thursday, July 29, 2021

Brainerd, MN: 1.5 miles

Bigfork, MN: 2.5 miles

Grand Rapids, MN: 3 miles

Chisholm-Hibbing Airport: 4 miles

Longville, MN: 4 miles

Aitkin, MN: 4 miles

Walker, MN: 5 miles

Moose Lake, MN: 5 miles

Duluth Airport: 6 miles

Solon Springs, WI: 7 miles

Air quality as of 4 PM Thursday, July 29, 2021 was in the very unhealthy category in northwest and western Minnesota (purple colors) with AQI values of 201-300 or higher.

Moderate to unhealthy AQI continued across most of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin as of late Thursday afternoon, although conditions have improved a bit especially over the Arrowhead of Minnesota.

A look at the 18z HRRR model smoke forecast through 1 PM Saturday shows wildfire smoke (dense at times) continuing to impact much of the upper Midwest. The darker red and purple colors on the loop below represents thick smoke aloft, and some of this smoke like we saw today will likely mix down to the surface from time to time at least through Saturday.

Forest fires continue to burn across Ontario Canada, with thick smoke from those fires pouring south into the upper Midwest today. Note: There are also numerous fires burning over parts of Manitoba and British Columbia.

Orange=Active fires

Yellow=New fires

Thick wildfire smoke has been impacting much of the upper Midwest today (magenta outlined area on map), but there is an area of less smoke (green area on map) which has been moving slowly southeast across northeastern Minnesota this afternoon.

Goes-16 visible satellite loop from Thursday, July 29, 2021.

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Rainfall totals/departure from normal for July 2021 (thru the 29th)

Duluth, MN: 2.74″; -0.96″ below normal

Ashland, WI: 1.80″; -1.86″ below normal

Brainerd, MN: 1.65″; -2.50″ below normal

Hibbing, MN: 1.62″; -2.04″ below normal

International Falls, MN: 1.20″; -2.58″ below normal

Note: Duluth is running -3.56″ below normal in precipitation since June 1st, and -4.31″ below normal since January 1st, and if you go back to last year, Duluth is running -14.23″ below normal in precipitation.

Drought conditions continue to worsen across Minnesota and North Dakota this week, while drought conditions improved slightly in Wisconsin.

Latest Drought Monitor as of July 27, 2021

22% of Minnesota is in D3 or Extreme Drought (red); this is up from 18% last week.
75% of Minnesota is in D2 or Severe Drought (orange); this is up from 71% last week.
97% of Minnesota is in D1 or Moderate Drought (light orange); this is down from 98% last week.
100% of Minnesota is Abnormally Dry; this is unchanged from last week.

2% of Wisconsin is in D2 or Severe Drought (orange); this is unchanged from last week.
27% of Wisconsin is in D1 or Moderate Drought (light orange); this is down from 28% last week.
46% of Wisconsin is Abnormally Dry (yellow); this is down from 52% last week.

10% of North Dakota is in D4 or Exceptional Drought (dark red); this is up from 8% last week.
52% of North Dakota is in D3 or Extreme Drought (red); this is up from 48% last week.
97% of North Dakota is in D2 or Severe Drought (orange); this is up from 96% last week.
100% of North Dakota is in Moderate Drought and is Abnormally Dry.

3% of the Midwest is in D3 or Extreme Drought (red); this is unchanged from last week.
16% of the Midwest is in D2 or Severe Drought (orange); this is up from 15% last week.
27% of the Midwest is in D1 or Moderate Drought (light orange); this is unchanged from last week.
34% of the Midwest is Abnormally Dry; this is down from 35% last week.

Even with recent rains, soil moisture is still very dry across much of Minnesota, with 0-100cm soil moisture percentiles of <2 to 5% in the dark red and red colors.