Update on rain chances for tonight and for late this week

After today’s 0.20″ of rain at the Duluth Airport, let’s check to see where we stand deficit wise.

Month to date: -2.07″ below normal
Since 6/1: -5.84″ below normal
Since 1/1: -6.59″ below normal

And since January 1, 2020: -16.51″ below normal

Model guidance has finally come into better agreement on whether or not will see additional rain tonight, and well the short answer to that question is no, at least on a widespread basis. We could still see a few showers and thunderstorms in parts of the Northland mainly before Midnight, but widespread heavy rain and severe weather is not expected tonight.

Here are the updated simulated radar forecasts through 1 AM tonight per 18z model run.

NAM 3km model

HRRR model

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Here’s the forecast map for late this week

A warm front south of Minnesota on Thursday is forecast to lift slightly more to the north Friday and Saturday. Warm and humid air will move up and over that warm frontal boundary and into a cooler air mass, this combined with sufficient lift near and north of that warm front should lead to several rounds of showers and thunderstorms in the upper Midwest starting on Thursday and continuing into Saturday night, with heavy rainfall possible at times, especially across central, eastern and southern Minnesota into parts of Wisconsin, but some heavy rain is even possible farther north to include parts of the Northland in the Friday-Saturday time frame.

Rainfall forecast through Sunday, August 29, 2021.

There is potential for widespread 2-3+” of rain in northeast Minnesota, with a chance for >4″ of rain in northwest Wisconsin and eastern Minnesota, again this would be in the Thursday night-Saturday night time frame.

Tim

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