A cooler and wetter pattern will be developing in the Northland over the next few days.
The setup from Thursday through Saturday night will feature a warm front south of the Northland while low pressure disturbances move along that boundary. Warm and humid air will lift up and over that warm front into a cooler air mass north of that warm front, this combined with periods of lift will lead to multiple rounds of rain and scattered thunderstorms in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin from Thursday through Saturday night. Note: Chances for severe weather look very low in our area Thursday and Friday due to limited instability, but on Saturday we could see a few stronger storms develop in parts of the Northland as we could get a push of higher instability (CAPE) working north-northeast into our area out ahead of an upper level trough and cold front which approaches from the Northern Plains.
Setup which will be in place Thursday and Friday will also be favorable for a gusty NE wind near Lake Superior due to an area of high pressure over Ontario and low pressure to our SW, the difference in pressure between those two features combined with a pretty strong temperature gradient should lead to a breezy NE wind of 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts possible.
Although it does look wet at times over the next few days, there likely will be breaks in between the rounds of rain across the Northland.
A few showers could move through the Northland late tonight/Thursday morning which could be followed by a more organized area of light to moderate rain Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening.
Simulated radar forecasts valid from 7 PM Wednesday to 7 AM Friday.
18z NAM 3km model
18z HRRR model
Widespread rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches are possible in northeast Minnesota over the next few days, while eastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin could see 2 to 3 inches of rain. Even higher rainfall totals of up to 5 inches are possible from parts of south-central Minnesota into central Wisconsin, and those areas do run the risk for areas of flash flooding Thursday through Saturday.
Significant River Flood Outlook valid through August 30, 2021.
Significant river flooding is possible in parts of Wisconsin and extreme southeast Minnesota (yellow area) over the next 5 days.