Guess what? More Dense Fog near Lake Superior tonight, and at times through Sunday. Active weather pattern into next week with several rain/thunder chances ahead; NE gale event possible on western Lake Superior middle of next week

If you like fog, well then you’ll continue to like the forecast for the next few days as will continue to see areas of fog (dense at times) in the Northland, but especially near Lake Superior where a persistent and humid onshore flow continues through the weekend.

Multiple rounds of rain and scattered thunderstorms are likely in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin this weekend as a strong area of low pressure lifts NE out of the western High Plains reaching northwest Minnesota on Sunday. Southerly flow ahead of this low will continue to bring warm and humid air north into the upper Midwest Saturday into Sunday, and will also see a decent amount of CAPE (instability) setup across the area with values of 500 to nearly 1500 J/kg per model guidance, this combined with a strong low level jet, strong winds aloft and strong wind shear will lead to the development of some thunderstorms at times this weekend, with a few stronger storms possible in the Northland especially on Sunday.

18z/1 PM NAM 3km model simulated radar forecast ending 1 AM Monday.

Forecast map valid for Saturday morning, October 9, 2021.

Rainfall amounts of an inch or more are forecast across northern Minnesota this weekend, with anywhere from a quarter inch to nearly an inch of rain possible for northwest Wisconsin.

Rainfall Forecast thru late Sunday night.

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Scattered to Isolated Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible Saturday and Saturday night over portions of the Dakotas into western and central Minnesota, with the highest chances for severe storms over southeast North Dakota, northeast South Dakota and portions of west-central Minnesota (yellow area on map).

The primary hazards from severe storms on Saturday include damaging wind gusts, large hail, and an isolated tornado.

The risk for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms continues Sunday, and is focused over all of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin (dark green area on map).

The primary hazards from stronger storms on Sunday is from gusty winds and hail.

Dense fog will be an issue once again especially near Lake Superior tonight into Saturday morning where a Dense Fog Advisory is in effect from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM Saturday.

Some cities included in the advisory are Duluth, Cloquet, Carlton, Moose Lake, Superior, and Solon Springs.

Visibility one quarter to one half mile in dense fog.

Hazardous driving conditions due to low visibility.

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An active weather pattern will continue through most of next week.

Goes-16 IR loop from Friday, October 8, 2021.

Today’s system continues to lift slowly NE out of Wisconsin, and then will watch a stronger system impact the Northland Saturday night into Sunday. A third system lifts NE out of the Southern Plains early next week, but this one looks like it will miss the Northland. And then will see one more system (likely the strongest one of them all) affect the upper Midwest and Northland during the middle to end of next week.

500mb Height Anomaly Forecast from the Euro ensemble model ending 7 AM Friday, October 15, 2021.

A strong fall storm is still likely to develop next week, with snow (possibly heavy) on the cold side of this system over parts of the Rockies and western High Plains, while rain and thunderstorms occur in the warmer air (south & east of the surface low track) Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are also possible with this storm next Tuesday and Wednesday across portions of the Southern and Central Plains.

This system will bring rain and possibly a few thunderstorms to the Northland next Wednesday and Thursday, October 13-14.

We could also see the first NE gale event of the season for western Lake Superior the middle of next week, ~October 13-14.

The warm October rolls on. Highs Saturday and Sunday will remain in the 60s and 70s in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

Note: Normal highs in the Northland this time of year are in the mid to upper 50s.

Tim

2 Comments

  1. Gary E. BRIGHT says:

    If the gale comes , that means strong N E winds right ? That will be perfect for the leaves to leave and miss my lawn !!

    1. burrweather says:

      LOL correct! It does look windy, with a NE wind on Wednesday. Not sure yet if it’ll meet gale criteria, but regardless it does look windy.

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