Mild temperatures continue Tuesday followed by much cooler temperatures midweek into this weekend; Few showers possible south areas Wednesday

More very mild temperatures across the region today as our warm October 2021 continues.

Widespread 70s in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin this afternoon, with even a few 80s in southwest Minnesota. These temperatures this afternoon are running anywhere from 15 to nearly 30 degrees above normal for this time of the year.

A reality check is coming, however, as cooler temperatures arrive starting on Wednesday, and lasting at least through Sunday the way it looks now.

More 60s and lower 70s for highs Tuesday, but after that we’re looking at several days with highs in the 40s to lower 50s in the Northland, so much closer to normal, to possibly even a little below normal on a few days later this week.

High Temperature forecast valid from October 19 – October 24, 2021.

More and more locations in the Northland have seen their first 32 F freeze of the season over the last few nights, although there are still several locations who have not, including here in Duluth where the average date for first 32 F freeze is September 30th, but the latest first freeze on record occurred on November 6th (1900), so we still have a ways to go to get to that record, and by the looks of the computer models, I don’t think will get to the record latest first freeze date, but will see what happens.

***Record Latest First 32 F Freeze at International Falls, Minnesota***
New record: October 17, 2021
Old record: October 8, 2016
Mean date for first 32 F freeze: September 15

***Record Latest First 32 F Freeze at Ashland, Wisconsin***
New record: October 18, 2021
Old record: October 10, 2017
Mean date for first 32 F freeze: September 18

Note: Brainerd, Minnesota missed their record latest first freeze by just one day!
Record is October 18, 2013.
First freeze this year in Brainerd occurred on October 17.
Mean date for first 32 F freeze: September 21

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A big ridge anchored right over the Central Plains and upper Midwest today with upper level troughs over eastern Canada and the northeast U.S., and also over the western U.S.

Eventually will see that trough over the western U.S. make its way NE through the upper Midwest on Wednesday, with much cooler weather arriving for mid to late week.

Goes-16 water vapor loop from Monday, October 18, 2021
Jet stream (black)

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Wednesday rain chances

A cold front will move across the Northland from W-E on Tuesday but there won’t be any precipitation with this front. But, an area of low pressure lifting ENE out of northeast Colorado will produce some rain on Wednesday, primarily over the southern half of Minnesota, but some showers could extend as far north as east-central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin on Wednesday while northern Minnesota and the Arrowhead looks to stay dry.

Forecast map valid for 7 AM Tuesday, October 19, 2021.

Shower chances on Wednesday look greatest over far southern portions of the Northland.

18z NAM 3km model simulated radar forecast valid 7 AM Wednesday to 1 AM Thursday.

Here’s a look at forecast rainfall totals for Wednesday.

Not looking at a whole lot of precipitation in northeast Minnesota or northwest Wisconsin through Saturday with generally below normal to near normal precipitation amounts expected.

Tim

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