Rainy weather ahead midweek

The Northland will be split in half when it comes to precipitation anomalies this week, with western portions of the area forecast to have above normal precipitation, while areas farther east are forecast to have near normal to below normal precipitation this week. Note: Much of the precipitation we see this week will come with a system in the Wednesday-Thursday time frame.

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A powerful fall storm currently impacting the western U.S. will split into two as it crosses the Rockies early this week. One piece of energy lifts ENE out of the Pacific northwest, while another piece of energy (stronger one) takes the southern route passing through the Southern Rockies and Southern Plains through midweek. Although this system will remain separate, it will have a broad southerly flow ahead of it stretching from the Southern Plains to upper Midwest for the midweek time frame, and that southerly flow should transport a good supply of moisture northward into our area.

Here’s the 500mb forecast from the 18z NAM model valid from 7 AM Monday to 1 AM Thursday.

The system for midweek looks to have a decent amount of moisture as Precipitable Water ranges from around 0.90″ to nearly 1.25″ (darker green & blue colors) from Wednesday into early Thursday.

An early look at the timing for when the rain moves into the Northland…Looks like an early Wednesday morning start time for western areas, but likely not until Wednesday evening or even later than that for the Arrowhead, Twin Ports and northwest Wisconsin per Euro model guidance.

Note: Timing of when the rain moves into our area could change a bit over the next few days.

(Rain in green colors).

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Above normal temperatures are forecast in the Northland this week. Normal highs in the Northland range from the upper 40s to lower 50s early in the period, but drop to the mid to upper 40s by the end of the period. Normal lows from October 24 to October 29 range from the middle 20s to lower 30s.

We won’t be too far from normal when it comes to the daytime highs this week, but our overnight lows look to be above normal most of this week.

A pattern change is possible for next week which may lead to cooler than normal temperatures (blue & green colors) in the Northland, and over much of the U.S.

Tim

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