Scattered Lake Effect Rain Showers near Lake Superior through Monday

The setup near Lake Superior will be favorable for the development of lake effect clouds and scattered lake effect rain showers at times into Monday with NE winds in place along with a favorable temperature difference from the surface to 850mb.

Water temps over Lake Superior are still running in the low to even mid 50s or from +10 to +12C, while 850mb temps (~5000 feet) range from around -4 to -7C, so that difference in temperature from surface to ~5000 feet will make the atmosphere a bit unstable which will lead to the development of lake effect showers through Monday.

Goes-16 visible satellite loop from Sunday morning, October 24, 2021.

Scattered lake effect showers will continue to be found near Lake Superior through Monday, while dry conditions continue farther away from Lake Superior in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

Note: Temperatures near Lake Superior should remain warm enough for the precipitation to fall as rain, but late tonight into early Monday morning boundary layer temps may cool enough to where we see a few snow flakes mix in especially in higher elevation.

12z NAM 3km model simulated radar forecast ending 7 PM Monday.

Rainfall totals ranging from around a trace to as much as 0.10″ are possible near Lake Superior through Monday.

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The weather pattern is an active one with multiple strong low pressure systems impacting the western U.S., and also the Midwest, but these systems won’t be impacting the Northland due to the proximity of an upper level low east of Lake Superior which will help steer these systems to the south through Monday.

Goes-16 water vapor loop from Sunday morning, October 24, 2021.

A powerful storm will be hitting the western U.S. over the next few days with strong, damaging winds, heavy rain/flooding, and heavy mountain snow.

Satellite loop from Sunday morning, October 24, 2021.

Various weather alerts are in effect for parts of the western U.S.

Green: Flood alerts
Brown/Orange: High wind alerts
Pink: Winter Storm Warning

Meanwhile a separate storm will impact the Midwest and Lower Great Lakes through tonight with a potential for heavy rain and flooding (flood watches in green).

There is also a risk for a severe weather outbreak this afternoon into tonight over parts of the Midwest with a threat for tornadoes (a few of which could be strong), damaging winds, and large hail.

Enhanced risk for severe thunderstorms (orange)
Slight risk for severe thunderstorms (yellow)

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Total precipitation from the western U.S. storm.

Total precipitation from the Midwest and Lower Great Lakes storm.

Tim

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