Blustery and chilly through midweek! Scattered snow or mixed rain-snow showers through Tuesday; Warming trend begins later this week

A cool weather pattern will continue in the Northland through midweek with daytime highs ranging from the mid 30s to around 40, while overnight lows fall into the 20s, with a few teens even possible in the typical spots. So yes it definitely will be on the chilly side the next few days, but hardly anything arctic when near surface temps are still well above zero, heck even remaining above the freezing mark during the day.

It continues to look like will see temperatures moderate some late this week into the week of November 7, how warm to be determined, but at the very least we’re likely looking at highs getting well into the 40s to around 50 in the Northland by next weekend and possibly beyond. Keep in mind that our normal highs fall from the low to mid 40s on November 5, to the upper 30s to lower 40s by November 9, so highs near 50 (assuming it gets that warm) would be roughly +10 degrees above normal in early November, but remember the warm stretch we had last November? If not here ya go!

High temperatures at Duluth, Minnesota from November 2-9, 2020

2nd: 51 F
3rd: 70 F
4th: 73 F
5th: 60 F
6th: 75 F
7th: 62 F
8th: 69 F
9th: 65 F

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An upper level low over western Ontario today will be moving off to the east the next few days. Lots of cold air underneath this upper low, with temperatures ~18,000 feet (500mb) down to -32 to -36C across the upper Midwest into central Canada today. All of this cold air aloft is part of the reason behind why we saw the showers in the Northland today.

A real mix bag of weather conditions in the Northland today featuring some sun, clouds, and scattered showers of snow, rain and even some graupel (soft hail/snow pellets). Some of the snow showers were on the heavy side for brief periods of time this afternoon, but the main impact was for reduced visibilities as those snow showers moved through parts of the area today.

Goes-16 visible satellite loop from Sunday, October 31, 2021.

Although we will see some scattered light precipitation in the Northland over the next few days we’re not looking at any major snow or rain events this week, and as a result we’re looking at below normal precipitation totals through November 6.

Scattered snow or mixed rain/snow showers will linger across the Northland through Tuesday.

18z NAM 3km model simulated radar forecast thru 7 PM Tuesday.

There could be some snow accumulations in far northern Minnesota and also along the South Shore of Lake Superior in northern Wisconsin and upper Michigan over the next few days.

It’s looking likely that 2021 will finish below normal in the precipitation department at Duluth, Minnesota, with our precipitation deficit sitting at -6.53″ below normal (thru October 30).

Going even further back, the precipitation deficit at Duluth, Minnesota for the period January 1, 2020 thru October 30, 2021 is at -16.45″ below normal.

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Strong model agreement for a period of above normal temps in the Northland between November 7-12, 2021.

Tim

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