Mild and dry weather continues the next few days; A colder pattern develops late next week; Some Rain/Snow possible mid to late next week

Fantastic late fall weather continues in the Northland for the next few days, but winter is knocking on our door!

Forecast highs in the Northland will range from the 50s to lower 60s on Sunday, and more 50s are likely for Monday and Tuesday, but temperatures take a tumble late in the upcoming week, with highs in the 20s and 30s, while overnight lows fall into the teens and 20s, and it might even get colder than that depending on sky conditions, and whether or not we start to lay down a snow pack in the Northland by mid-month.

High Temperatures from Saturday, November 6, 2021

Ashland, WI: 65 F (normal high 45)
Duluth, MN: 64 F (normal high 42)
Brainerd, MN: 62 F (normal high 45)
Hibbing, MN: 62 F (normal high 39)
International Falls, MN: 59 F (normal high 40)

Here’s the 10 Day temperature forecast for Duluth, Minnesota. Note the drop in temperatures for late next week into early the following week.

An area of rain affected mainly southern portions of the Northland early Saturday morning with rainfall amounts ranging from a trace to around 0.10″ for those that saw the rain early today.

Rainfall Reports from Saturday morning, November 6, 2021

Saginaw, MN: 0.13″
Two Harbors, MN: 0.13″
Duluth Airport: 0.11″
Duluth Sky Harbor Airport: 0.08″
Superior Airport: 0.07″
Washburn, WI: 0.07″
Ashland, WI: 0.05″
Cloquet, MN: 0.05″
Hill City, MN: 0.04″
McGregor, MN: 0.02″
Chisholm-Hibbing Airport: 0.01″

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This doesn’t happen very often where temperatures are warmer in Minnesota compared to Florida in November, but this very thing occurred today where we had temperatures in the 60s and lower 70s in Minnesota, while temperatures were only in the mid 40s to low 50s in northern Florida!

Temperatures were running ~20 degrees above normal across the Northern Plains and upper Midwest this afternoon, while temperatures in the southeast U.S. were running -15 to -25 degrees below normal.

A closer look at temperatures across the region from this afternoon.

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There continues to be a chance that we see some rain and snow in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin later next week (Wednesday PM-Friday time frame), but there is still a lot of uncertainty regarding just how much precipitation will see in our area, as well as how much of it falls as snow.

A broad trough is forecast to extend from central Canada to south Texas by late next week with a chance that we see a stronger surface low develop just ahead of that trough, but the range of possibilities as to where that surface low could be extends from the Midwest to central Canada.

There’s only 10/50 or just 20% of European model ensemble members that show snowfall totals of 2″ or more in Duluth for late next week, the other 40 or 80% of members show snowfall of <2″ in Duluth for late next week.

One thing that is looking more likely is that we see a return to colder/below normal temperatures in the Northland beginning ~November 12th, and once this new pattern becomes established it has a chance to stick around for a while.

There is a chance, however, that we see the coldest air (compared to normal) setup more to our west across the Rockies, and if that does happen that could mean a stormier pattern with more frequent snow or rain events impacting parts of the upper Midwest toward mid-month.

Tim

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