A few showers possible late tonight; Mild and dry this weekend; Some rain or snow possible mid to late next week

A trough of low pressure is moving east across the Dakotas this afternoon. This system will move quickly through the Northland late tonight-Saturday morning bringing with it a few rain showers, but no widespread/significant rain is expected.

MRMS radar loop ending 3:40 PM Friday, November 5, 2021.

The system which will affect the Northland late tonight looks pretty impressive on water vapor imagery this afternoon (note the spin in central North Dakota), but there really isn’t a whole lot of moisture for this system to tap into, and as a result we’re only looking at a chance for a few light rain showers or sprinkles in our area late tonight.

Goes-16 water vapor loop from Friday, November 5, 2021.

A few rain showers are possible in parts of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin overnight tonight into Saturday morning.

Timing for when we could see a few showers in Duluth and Superior is from around 3 AM to 7 AM Saturday.

18z HRRR model simulated radar forecast valid from Midnight tonight to 1 PM Saturday.

Rainfall totals ranging from a trace to around 0.10″ are possible through Saturday morning especially along and north of Highway 2 in northeast Minnesota, and also for extreme northern Wisconsin.

We are looking at a mild weekend across the area with highs Saturday and Sunday ranging from the mid 50s to around 60 degrees in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin, with highs well into the 60s expected in western/southern Minnesota. This weekend could very well be the last time in 2021 where we see 50 and 60 degree temps in the Northland.


…Storm Potential mid to late next week…

I wish I had could say something different regarding next week’s storm potential, but I can’t.

Still seeing major differences in the storm track and intensity in model guidance today, however, the GFS and Canadian models have both trended much stronger with the system for late next week, whereas the European model has trended quite a bit weaker compared to 24 hours ago.

The upper level pattern supports storm development mid to late next week, but we’re dealing with two pieces of energy, one in the northern stream, the other in the southern stream. Do these systems phase into one main low (stronger storm), or do they stay separate (weaker storm) Unfortunately I don’t think the computer models will resolve these issues until sometime early next week, so for now it’s all about a potential storm ~November 11-13.


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