There’s quite a bit to talk about when it comes to our weather, including a chance for low clouds and fog to develop late tonight, lingering into Friday morning. A chance for some sprinkles or light rain showers Friday night, followed by a mild and mostly dry weekend. And then there’s next week’s weather which includes a possibility that we see a larger and stronger low pressure system develop, but plenty of red flags showing up on this potential system since the computer models are struggling trying to figure out the storm track and its intensity, and whether there’ll even be enough cold air in place for a wintry threat (significant snows) or will it be too warm for snow, causing rain to be the main precipitation type. One thing is becoming clear and its that winter must be knocking on our door, especially when you see a lot of shifting going on in computer model guidance (typical winter stuff right there).
Areas of low clouds and fog (locally dense) developed over parts of central Minnesota early this morning, and there is a chance that we see another round of low clouds and fog develop late tonight lingering into Friday morning in parts of central and northern Minnesota.
18z HRRR model visibility forecast valid 1 AM tonight to 3 PM Friday.
Darker colors represent visibility of a mile or less.
There is a chance for a few light rain showers or sprinkles in the Northland Friday evening into early Saturday morning as a trough of low pressure moves out of the Dakotas. Rainfall amounts ranging from a trace to around 0.10″ are possible in the Northland with this system.
18z NAM 3km model simulated radar forecast valid 1 PM Friday to 7 AM Saturday.
Temperatures warmed up nicely this afternoon compared to the chilly temperatures we had in the Northland this morning.
Seeing widespread temperatures in the mid 40s to around 50 degrees in the Northland late this Thursday afternoon. Even warmer farther west today, with temperatures as warm as the upper 60s in parts of the western Dakotas.
Temperatures this afternoon ranged from +15 to +25 degrees above normal across the Northern Rockies and Northern Plains to -10 to -20 degrees below normal across the southern and eastern U.S.
Mild high temperatures continue in the Northland Friday through Sunday with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s Friday, and into the 50s Saturday and Sunday. There is even a chance that a few locations get close to 60 degrees Saturday and Sunday. Normal highs in the Northland in early November range from around 40 to 45 degrees.
Note: Colder risks return late next week.
A cold morning in the Northland! Check out some of these low temperatures from Thursday morning, November 4, 2021.
Temperatures in degrees Fahrenheit
Eveleth, MN: 13
Chisholm-Hibbing Airport: 13
Ely, MN: 16
Minong, WI: 16
Superior Airport: 16
Ashland, WI: 17
Glidden, WI: 17
Hill City, MN: 18
Solon Springs, WI: 18
Clam Lake, WI: 18
Grand Marais Airport: 18
Hayward, WI: 18
Effie, MN: 19
Cook, MN: 19
Moose Lake, MN: 19
Crane Lake, MN: 19
Longville, MN: 19
Two Harbors, MN: 19
2 ENE Oliver, WI: 20
International Falls, MN: 20
Hinckley, MN: 21
Siren, WI: 21
Bigfork, MN: 21
Pine River, MN: 21
Danbury, WI: 22
Brainerd, MN: 22
Snow cover was showing up over western Upper Michigan on Goes-16 satellite imagery earlier this afternoon.
…Storm Potential mid to late next week…
Computer models continue to struggle as they try to get a handle on how the pattern will setup for next week, and until they get these issues resolved forecasters are going to have a difficult time trying to figure out what may happen later next week.
So for now it’s all about potential! The potential is there for a system to develop in the Plains mid to late next week, and if it tracks favorably, then we could get some rain and or snow in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin later next week.
Shown below are the last 4 model runs from the European computer model.
No consistency seen with where the Euro model places a surface low (red L) for next Thursday morning, November 11th, 2021.
Oldest model run had a low in eastern Kansas with the newest run from today (Thursday) showing a low over northern Missouri, the other two model runs had a low in southeast Minnesota, and central Lake Superior.
In just one day, the surface low shifted from central Lake Superior back down to northern Missouri for next Thursday morning per Euro model guidance.
Here’s one of the things the computer models are trying to figure out, do we see the northern lows phase with the lows over the Southern Plains later next week, or do they stay separate? A more phased system would likely lead to a stronger storm developing somewhere in the Midwest/Great Lakes, but if the lows don’t phase, then a weaker system would likely occur.
An upper level trough (outlined in black) is forecast to be over the Rockies by the middle of next week. How this trough evolves once it moves out into the Plains and Great Lakes is uncertain today.
A flatter trough (highlighted in orange) would lead to a weaker system, but a trough that becomes negatively tilted (highlighted in dark red) would lead to a much stronger system mid to late next week.
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