Early Thursday Afternoon Weather Update

Precipitation Totals from November 10th-11th, 2021

Totals listed below are thru 11 AM on the 11th

Source: https://mesowest.utah.edu/

Grand Portage, MN: 2.14″
The Bay of Grand Marais, MN: 1.99″
Two Harbors, MN: 1.51″
Glidden, WI: 1.51″
Moose Lake, MN: 1.37″
Washburn, WI: 1.25″
Duluth Airport: 1.24″
Hayward, WI: 1.24″
Barnes, WI: 1.20″
Minong, WI: 1.11″
Clam Lake, WI: 1.10″
Siren, WI: 1.08″
Ashland, WI: 1.03″
Duluth Sky Harbor Airport: 1.02″
Saginaw, MN: 0.95″
Isabella, MN: 0.92″
Chisholm-Hibbing Airport: 0.88″
Eveleth-Virginia, MN: 0.88″
Cloquet, MN: 0.86″
International Falls, MN: 0.86″
Superior Airport: 0.84″
Hill City, MN: 0.75″
Littlefork, MN: 0.73″
McGregor, MN: 0.72″
Brainerd, MN: 0.69″
Grand Rapids, MN: 0.68″
Longville, MN: 0.67″
Aitkin, MN: 0.63″
Pine River, MN: 0.58″
Walker, MN: 0.55″
Cass Lake, MN: 0.53″
Bigfork, MN: 0.50″
Ely, MN: 0.25″

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A strong area of low pressure was located just east of Duluth, Minnesota late this Thursday morning. This low will hook NW into northeast Minnesota this afternoon, and then will see this low drop south and eventually southeast through east-central Minnesota into western Wisconsin by Friday morning.

A variety of weather headlines in effect across the Northern Plains and upper Midwest.

For the Northland

  • Winter Storm Warning in effect until Noon Friday including the cities of International Falls, Littlefork, Big Falls and Northome.
  • Winter Weather Advisory in effect until Noon Friday including the cities of Cass Lake, Walker, Longville, Leader, Pine River, Bigfork, Effie and Togo.

Roads across much of the Northland are in normal driving conditions as of early this afternoon, but there are some areas near Cook and Virginia which have partially covered roadways with light slush accumulations.

Link to Minnesota road conditions https://511mn.org/

Snow continues this afternoon into this evening across north-central Minnesota with rain and drizzle in the Arrowhead and along the North Shore.

A mix of rain and snow is expected thru this evening across east-central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin, although precipitation may come to an end in these areas for a few hours later this afternoon depending on how far north a dry slot gets.

For Duluth and Superior: Rain continues this afternoon, although we may see the rain begin to mix with snow on top of the hill, and that trend continues into this evening, while precipitation stays as mostly rain below the hill (lower elevation) thru this evening.

12z NAM 3km model simulated radar forecast thru 11 PM tonight.

Snow in blue
Rain in green

No changes to my snowfall forecast as of early this afternoon.

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Surface temperatures early this afternoon ranged from the 40s along the North Shore of Lake Superior and Arrowhead, and also along portions of the South Shore of Lake Superior in northern Wisconsin, while temps in the 30s were common in northern and eastern Minnesota.

Note: Locations that are seeing snow with temps in the mid 30s likely won’t see much accumulation this afternoon, but where temps are in that 32-34 degree range some snow accumulation will likely occur this afternoon.

A classic storm today as warm air surges from SE to NW while cold air moves in from the SW.

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A look at our storm on satellite imagery.

Goes-16 visible satellite loop ending 11:46 AM, Thursday, November 11, 2021.

A dry slot (blue colors) is lifting slowly north out of west-central and southern Minnesota late this morning, while widespread precipitation continues across northern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

Goes-16 water vapor loop ending 11:51 AM, Thursday, November 11, 2021.

Tim

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