Much of the Northland including locations near Lake Superior should have some snow on the ground by Sunday morning thanks to a clipper low which dives SE out of the Dakotas on Saturday — This system will deepen as it moves over the upper Midwest Saturday night with a swath of accumulating snow (a few inches) expected in much of the Northland to the north of an area of low pressure which is forecast to move southeast across southern Minnesota Saturday night. Roads Saturday night into Sunday morning may become snow covered and slippery in parts of the Northland.
Here’s a look at my preliminary snowfall forecast for Saturday late afternoon into early Sunday morning.
Amounts and gradients may change a bit over the next 18 hours or so.
- 2 to 4 inches of snow south areas.
- 1 to 2 inches of snow across the north, including for Duluth and Superior.
- A trace to an inch of snow for the Arrowhead, including the Ely and Grand Marais areas.
Wind doesn’t look to be a major issue with this system Saturday night, but winds do increase on Sunday so we may see some patchy blowing snow develop at that time.
Timing of Saturday’s snow
-Snow develops in far western areas ~2 PM to 4 PM Saturday.
-Snow tapers off from west to east early Sunday morning, lingering longest in northwest Wisconsin and South Shore areas.
-Snow is forecast to begin in the Twin Ports ~5 PM to 7 PM Saturday, snow ends ~4 AM to 6 AM Sunday.
18z NAM 3km model simulated radar forecast valid 1 PM Saturday to 6 PM Sunday.
A strong upper-level low has moved into eastern Upper Michigan late this afternoon with a cold cyclonic flow occurring behind this low. We’ve also been seeing areas of snow showers or mixed rain and snow showers across the Northland today.
Snow showers and flurries will persist in parts of the Northland tonight through Saturday morning, with the best chance for some accumulating snow found along the South Shore of Lake Superior in northwest Wisconsin where lake effect snow is likely tonight.
18z NAM 3km model simulated radar forecast through Noon Saturday.
NWS snowfall forecast ending Noon Saturday.
1 to 4 inches of snow is possible along parts of the South Shore of Lake Superior mainly over portions of Ashland and Iron County. Snow amounts elsewhere in the Northland will remain <1″ tonight.
Our next snow maker will be a clipper system which deepens as it heads SE out of the Northern Plains and across the upper Midwest Saturday night.
18z NAM model 500mb forecast valid Noon Saturday to 6 AM Sunday.
Below normal high temperatures are likely in the Northland Saturday through Monday with daytime highs in the low 30s Saturday and Monday, and in the upper 20s to low 30s on Sunday.
We may get a brief spike in temps on Tuesday with a possibility for 40 degree highs, but colder air looks to return for mid to late next week.
Tim
