An area of low pressure (clipper) was over east-central North Dakota as of 1 PM today, this low will track quickly SE through the southern half of Minnesota tonight, reaching southern Wisconsin around daybreak on Sunday. This system will produce a swath of accumulating snow across parts of the upper Midwest through Sunday morning.
Snow stretches from northeast North Dakota to northwest, central and southern Minnesota as of 2:20 PM with movement generally toward the east or east-southeast.
Winter Weather Advisory (purple) is in effect until 6 AM Sunday including the cities of Cass Lake, Leader, Walker, Pine River, Brainerd, Hill City, Aitkin, McGregor, Danbury, Siren, Spooner and Shell Lake. Plan on slippery road conditions. Snow could reduce visibilities below a half mile at times through the evening and overnight.
No big changes seen in model guidance for tonight’s system, thus I won’t be making any changes to my snowfall forecast.
Note: There is a chance for a few 5″ snow totals in that 2-4″ zone.
Roads are completely covered to partially covered with snow and slush across much of northwest and west-central Minnesota this afternoon. Road conditions across the Northland will be deteriorating late this afternoon and this evening once the snow begins to fall and accumulate.
Traffic Camera from US 2 at Cass Lake, Minnesota from 2:04 PM Saturday, November 13, 2021.
Temperatures this afternoon ranged from the 60s in parts of western South Dakota to around 30 in northeast Minnesota.
Seeing a nice temperature gradient this afternoon with 850mb temps ranging from +16C over parts of the western High Plains to -10C across northern Minnesota.
A trough (outlined in black) over the Northern Plains this afternoon will deepen a bit as it continues to move SE tonight.
Strong upper level winds (purple) >130 knots were found SW of an upper level trough digging SE across the Northern Plains this afternoon.
Goes-16 water vapor loop from Saturday, November 13, 2021.
Much of the Northland will see snow this evening and overnight. This snow will spread generally toward the east or east-southeast this evening, with snow ending from west to east early Sunday morning.
Scattered lake effect snow showers are likely along the South Shore of Lake Superior on Sunday behind tonight’s system, with chances for lake effect snow highest across portions of Ashland and Iron County.
For Duluth and Superior: Snow develops early this evening ~4 PM to 6 PM. Snow tapers off early Sunday morning ~4 AM to 6 AM.
18z HRRR model simulated radar forecast thru 6 AM Sunday.
Snow that we get tonight won’t be melting on Sunday as highs will only reach the upper 20s to lower 30s in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.