Blustery and colder with scattered snow showers and flurries tonight and Thursday; Brief shot of arctic air possible early next week with a little snow possible Sunday

A strong area of low pressure over western Ontario late this afternoon will continue to move off to the northeast as it moves over Hudson Bay and Quebec on Thursday — Gusty winds will continue through Thursday across the Northland on the backside of this system due to a tight pressure gradient between a strong low to our north and strong high pressure over the Northern Rockies.

What moisture there is will combine with cold air advection to produce a few passing snow showers and flurries tonight and Thursday but little to no snow accumulation is expected in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

Goes-16 water vapor loop from Wednesday, November 17, 2021

Will continue to see scattered snow showers and flurries across the Northland through Thursday but the majority of us won’t see any accumulation at all.

18z NAM 3km model simulated radar forecast thru 6 AM Friday.

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Temperatures are running 15 to 30 degrees colder this afternoon compared to Tuesday afternoon across the Northern and Central Plains.

A chilly day ahead on Thursday with highs only in the upper 20s to lower 30s in the Northland.

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Our next best chance for some snow in the Northland comes on Sunday the way it looks now, but we’re not looking at a huge amount of snow by any means, with accumulations if any looking to be in that half inch to two inch range.

Behind that system on Sunday may be a brief shot of arctic air which could impact the Northland in the Sunday night-Tuesday morning time frame, with a possibility for overnight lows near or below zero in parts of northern Minnesota early next week.

Next Monday’s forecast highs would be around -10 to -15 degrees below normal for late November.

An early look at the forecast high temperatures for next Monday shows highs only in the 20s in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

Next Monday’s forecast lows would be around -10 to -15 degrees below normal for late November, with subzero lows not only in northwest Minnesota and northeast North Dakota, but also in the typical cold spots in northern Minnesota.

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Still not seeing any consistent trends in long range model guidance for a major winter storm to hit the Northland for the rest of this month.

Ensemble model guidance shows an additional 2 to 5 inches of snow falling in the Northland by the end of this month, with a few areas of 6 or more inches, one near the Ontario border, and the other out toward the Hurley area in northern Wisconsin.

Tim

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