Blustery weather will continue in the Northland through Thursday due to a strong area of low pressure moving east across central Canada. Cooler temperatures will also return to the area over the next few days along with chances for a few passing snow flurries and snow showers, but little to no snow accumulation is expected through Thursday.
A powerful area of low pressure ~982mb/29.00″ is moving east out of Saskatchewan today, but all of the heavy snow with this system will remain well northwest of our area tonight and Wednesday.
Goes-16 water vapor loop from Tuesday, November 16, 2021 (loop ends 4:50 PM CT)
High Wind Warnings and Advisories (brown colors) are widespread across the Northern Rockies into the Northern Plains tonight and Wednesday, with fire weather warnings (pink) in effect into early this evening.
Temperatures trend cooler mid to late week
Highs will range from the low 30s to around 40 in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin on Wednesday, with upper 20s to middle 30s forecast on Thursday, and mainly in the low to mid 30s on Friday. Looks like we may warm up slightly on Saturday, but a frigid shot of air is possible for early next week, subzero cold at night? Will see.
Patchy light rain or mixed rain/snow showers tonight due to an occluded front moving across the area, this will be followed by a few snow showers and flurries for Wednesday and Thursday as colder air returns to the Northland.
18z NAM 3km model simulated radar forecast ending 6 PM Thursday.
No real strong or consistent signals showing up in model guidance for a big winter storm to impact the Northland for the rest of this month, however, that’s not to say we won’t be seeing some snow at times over the next two weeks.
Both ensemble models (EPS and GEFS) show snow amounts generally in that 2-4″ range in the Northland through November 30th, with the EPS model slightly higher with snow amounts in far northern Minnesota and along parts of the South Shore of Lake Superior.
Temperatures in all of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin made it above freezing today with temperatures generally in the mid to upper 30s late this afternoon, but its even warmer farther to the south, with late afternoon temperatures in the mid 50s to low 60s in southwest Minnesota.
24-Hour temperature change — Warmer across the upper Midwest compared to 24 hours ago, while it’s a lot colder across the Northern Rockies compared to 24 hours ago.
A strong area of low pressure was over eastern Saskatchewan late this afternoon with a weaker low over southwest Minnesota. Warm southerly winds were occurring ahead of these lows today, while colder air was found north/west of the low over Saskatchewan.
Much of the Northern Plains had temperatures which were +10 to +15 degrees above normal today, with even greater anomalies of +15 to +25 degrees above normal farther south in the Central Plains today.
Although temperatures were warmer today compared to the last few days in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin, today’s highs were actually pretty close to where they should be on November 16th.
Tim
