Cold tonight, warmer Tuesday and Wednesday, turning colder again Thanksgiving

A temperature roller coaster for the rest of this week and likely for next week as well, although a more persistent wave of warmth is looking more likely for next week, with several days with highs reaching 40 or warmer possible in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin ~November 29 through December 4, of course there are a few potential hiccups that may lead to slightly cooler temps for next week (especially early in the week), and those would be in the form of clipper lows and the tracks of those lows. In short, if those lows pass by to our north this would then flood our area in a mild air mass, but if those lows dip further west and south, this would open up the possibility for brief shots of colder air to impact the Northland.


Talk about big time changes in our 850mb temperatures, or temperatures at ~5000 feet in the atmosphere.

Will start with tonight as Sunday’s cold air mass lingers over our area with 850mb temps at around -12C, but strong warm air advection will send 850mb temps up to around +10C on Tuesday, but then will see another strong push of cold air advection occur from NW-SE from late Wednesday into Thursday, and on Thursday 850mb temps are forecast to range from around -15 to -20C in the Northland.

Of course, with these temperature swings, will have to deal with some wind, but not nearly as windy as it was on Sunday. Southerly winds Tuesday 10 to 20 mph, gusts to 25 mph, then a wind shift to the north occurs Wednesday and Thursday.

18z NAM model 850mb temperature forecast valid 6 PM Monday to Midnight Friday.

Colder temps in blue, white and purple colors.
Warmer temps in green, yellow and orange colors.

It will be a mild day on Tuesday, but we probably won’t be breaking any records highs in the Northland on Tuesday.

Here are the record high temperatures in the Northland for November 23rd.

Ashland, WI: 57 F set in 1908
Brainerd, MN: 53 F set in 2009
Duluth, MN: 51 F set in 1907
International Falls, MN: 50 F set in 2011
Hibbing, MN: 49 F set in 2011


There are no strong signals showing up in model data for any major snow or rain events impacting the Northland well into next week, but we may see a few snow showers and flurries (dusting of accumulation) Wednesday into early Thursday, and possibly again during the Friday-Saturday time frame, but certainly doesn’t look like it would be enough snow to produce any travel impacts in our area.

Only 5″ of snow so far this month in Duluth, and it’s a good possibility that November 2021 will be the least snowy November in Duluth since November 2015 when 4.4″ of snow fell.

Here’s a look at past snowfall totals for Duluth during the month of November (2010-2020)
Normal snowfall in November is 14.1″

2010: 27.9″
2011: 3.7″
2012: 10.1″
2013: 4.7″
2014: 16.4″
2015: 4.4″
2016: 8.1″
2017: 10.5″
2018: 12.2″
2019: 27.7″
2020: 19.2″
2021: 5.0″ (thru the 22nd)


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