Mild Wednesday, much colder Thanksgiving followed by milder temperatures again this weekend

Mild temperatures will continue on Wednesday, especially in eastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin as those areas will warm well into the 40s once again, but colder air will work into northern Minnesota during the day with temperatures in the 20s and 30s, with even colder air lurking north of the border, and a piece of that frigid air mass currently covering north-central Canada will move over the Northland on Thanksgiving with highs only in the teens to around 20 degrees in the Northland but it does look mostly sunny.

There is a chance for a little snow, drizzle or a light wintry mix of precipitation in parts of the Northland Wednesday with any precipitation switching over to light snow showers and flurries Wednesday night into early Thursday morning, but little if any snow accumulation is expected in most of the Northland the way it looks now.

18z NAM 3km model simulated radar forecast valid 6 AM Wednesday to 6 AM Thursday.

The South Shore of Lake Superior including areas from Morse and Glidden, east to Upson and Hurley have the best chance at picking up a couple inches of snow Wednesday night-Thursday morning due to a period of lake effect snow, while the rest of the Northland gets very little to no snow accumulation.

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A mild late November day in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin as high temperatures climbed well into the 40s today which is roughly 10 degrees warmer than normal for November 23rd.

High temperatures from Tuesday, November 23, 2021

Brainerd, MN: 50 F
Ashland, WI: 47 F
Duluth, MN (Airport) 43 F
International Falls, MN: 41 F
Hibbing, MN: 41 F

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Computer models have trended somewhat cooler for next week thanks to a couple of clipper systems which will affect the temperature pattern across the upper Midwest.

Here’s the 500mb forecast for next week. It may actually be a pretty active pattern for the upper Midwest as a series of clippers move ESE out of western Canada, but whether or not we see much snow or rain out of these systems remains to be seen, although right now it doesn’t look like we would get very much snow or rain in the Northland at least through the middle of next week.

The core of the warmest air (compared to normal) is now focused more to our west, across the Rockies and Plains (yellow outlined area), while here in the Northland it’s more or less the same type of pattern we’ve been in for a while now, where we get a few shots of warm air mixed in with brief shots of cold air.

Note: Chances we see at least one or two days with highs at or above 40 in the Northland is still pretty high, however for next week, it’s just a matter of figuring out what day/s holds the best chance for that to happen.

Tim

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