Mild and dry the next few days; Midweek rain chances followed by a cooling trend

A less active weather pattern will be with us for the next few days.

High temperatures in the Northland for Sunday, Monday and Tuesday will mainly be in the 30s, although a few locations may hit 40 degrees on any one of those days. Normal highs in mid-December are in the low to mid 20s.

A strong low-pressure system is still forecast to develop while impacting the Northern Plains and upper Midwest for the middle of next week, but with the amount of warm air pumping north ahead of this system, chances we see more rain than snow are rather high in much of the Northland for Wednesday and Wednesday night, but colder air on the backside of this system may cause the rain to turn to snow or flurries during the day Thursday, but at the moment this doesn’t look like it would be a big winter storm for the Northland.

Very mild temperatures continue to look likely on Wednesday, with 50-degree highs possible in parts of northwest Wisconsin with 40s for much of northeast Minnesota.

Fog chances may increase in the Tuesday-Wednesday time frame due to the warm temps and at least some snow melt which should take place.

High temperature forecast valid Sunday, December 12, 2021, to Tuesday, December 14, 2021.

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A powerful winter storm produced a swath of heavy snow Friday into early Saturday morning in parts of the Northern Plains and upper Midwest.

Snow cover after Friday’s winter storm showed up nicely on Goes-16 satellite imagery today (green colors and in between the white outlined areas on map below).

A narrow but very intense band of snow (black outlined area on map) developed while remaining nearly stationary for several hours south/southeast of Minneapolis late Friday afternoon and evening with reports of 1 to nearly 3 inches of snow per hour under this band.

Radar estimated snow for December 10, 2021 (ending just before Midnight).

21″ of snow was reported 3 miles east of St. Paul, MN on Friday, with 20″ of snow reported near Woodbury, MN.

Snowfall Reports from around the Northland from December 10-11, 2021

Stone Lake, WI: 10.0″
Butternut, WI: 7.5″
Gile, WI: 7.5″
4.3 SW Shell Lake, WI: 5.5″
9.2 NNE Hayward, WI: 4.5″
4 NNW Namekagon, WI: 4.0″
7 SW Hertel, WI: 3.8″
4 W Clam Lake, WI: 3.6″
3 S Ashland, WI: 3.0″
0.7 SSW Pine City, MN: 2.0″
5 WNW Minong, WI: 2.0″
1.1 W Webb Lake, WI: 1.9″
0.8 N Washburn, WI: 1.5″
1 SSE Cornucopia, WI: 1.3″
Solon Springs, WI: 1.0″
Maple, WI: 1.0″

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The same storm which brought the heavy snow to parts of the upper Midwest on Friday also had a severe side as a major severe weather outbreak developed from Missouri and Arkansas, east to the Ohio Valley Friday evening/overnight.

Preliminary tornado count from Friday is at 34 as of 3 PM Saturday with over 300 reports of severe weather (wind, hail and tornadoes) on Friday.

Red – Tornado
Blue – Damaging Winds >58 mph
Green – Hail 1.00″ or greater in diameter

At one point Friday evening there were over a dozen active tornado warnings (red and pink), with two of them being Tornado Emergencies (black) which are rare!

Here’s a radar grab and NWS warning statement from one of those tornado emergencies from Friday evening.

Here’s a look at the most powerful supercell from Friday night’s severe weather outbreak — This supercell traveled 600 miles from Arkansas to Ohio and maintained its strength for just over 11 hours, that would be incredible for spring, but the fact that this happened in December made it even more incredible.

MRMS rotation tracks from Friday night — The “Quad State Tornado” had a continuous 240-mile track from Arkansas to Ohio. 384+ miles of tornado warnings were issued for this storm. Credit @EFisherWX

Here’s another view of the MRMS rotation tracks from Friday night. The blue colors represent very strong rotation, and look how long this thing traveled, wow!

There were reports of debris being lofted 30,000 feet into the air with the Mayfield, KY tornado Friday night.

Tim

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