A major winter storm continues from south-central Minnesota to central Wisconsin tonight; Mild temps and a quieter weather pattern this weekend into early next week; Storm potential middle of next week

A powerful area of low pressure centered over far northeast Kansas late this afternoon will lift northeast reaching central Lake Michigan by daybreak (Saturday), this low will then move into western Quebec by Saturday evening.

Heavy snow in the colder air on the NW side of this low, while severe weather occurs in the warmer air on the SE side of this area of low pressure.

A swath of 6-10+” of snow is expected by Saturday morning from south-central Minnesota to central/northeast Wisconsin to central upper Michigan.

Major Potential Winter Storm Impacts (red) tonight into early Saturday morning, with Moderate Potential Winter Storm Impacts in the orange area.

Here’s my updated snowfall forecast for tonight’s storm.

I did nudge the snowfall gradients a little farther NW, but it still looks like the bulk of the snow will remain south- southeast of Duluth tonight.

A variety of weather alerts are in effect for tonight.

Pink – Winter Storm Warning
Purple – Winter Weather Advisory
Yellow – Tornado Watch
Brown – High wind
Darker pink – Fire warnings

A look at today’s storm on water vapor imagery.

Snow for much of northwest Wisconsin and possibly in far eastern Minnesota tonight, but this snow will end quickly from SW-NE early Saturday morning.

18z NAM 3km model simulated radar forecast ending 10 AM Saturday.

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An outbreak of severe thunderstorms including a risk for tornadoes (some of which may be strong) is expected tonight from parts of Missouri and Arkansas east through parts of Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Kentucky, Tennessee and possibly as far south as Louisiana and Mississippi.

It is rare to see such a large area at risk for severe thunderstorms and for so far north on December 10th. The map below shows where severe weather typically occurs on December 10th.

The setup for severe thunderstorms is rather potent for tonight.

Strong winds aloft centered over the Central Plains and north of the Great Lakes with a deepening surface low tracking northeastward out of far northeast Kansas.

Strong divergence between the two wind maximums coupled with ample amounts of warm air, moisture, instability and wind shear will lead to the potential for severe weather tonight (white outlined area on map).

Very humid air as far north as central Illinois this afternoon with dew points in the mid 50s, but it’s even more humid farther south.

Just a tremendous amount of warm air today with 70-degree temps as far north as southern Missouri, and 80s as far north as southern Arkansas.

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…Storm Potential middle of next week…

-A powerful storm system may develop while impacting parts of the Rockies, Plains and upper Midwest the middle of next week.

-A swath of heavy snow (possible blizzard conditions) High winds, rain and thunderstorms are all possible with this system.

-The storm track will determine what area sees snow, rain or a combination of the two, and that won’t be known for a few more days.

-Computer models continue to show a very deep area of low pressure for the middle of next week, possibly as low as the 970s millibar range. Whether or not the models continue to show a low this strong, or if they trend toward a weaker system in coming days remains to be seen.

-Based on the current storm track, most of the Northland would be on the warm side of this system with rain being the main precipitation type, although a brief period of snow is possible at the tail end of this system as colder air rushes in.

Stay tuned!

Incredible amounts of warm air for the middle of next week if this forecast verifies.

Tim

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