An active weather pattern possible for the rest of 2021

The pattern continues to look pretty active in the Northland from late this week into next week, but whether or not we see a larger winter storm (or more than one), or just several weaker systems impact our area remains to be seen.

The overall pattern is one that will feature a deep trough over the Western U.S. while upper-level ridging covers the southern and eastern U.S. Typically, with this type of pattern, will see a big storm spin up across the Plains, but just because the pattern supports one, doesn’t mean it will happen.

The time frames to keep an eye on would be around December 24-25, and then around December 26-28, and possibly again around the middle of next week but computer models at least with today’s runs have been trending toward less of an event for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day but continue to show something in the December 26-28 time frame. Stay tuned.

500mb forecast valid December 24 to December 31, 2021.

This type of temperature pattern (see map below) is one that can also be favorable in the development of a stronger system since we look to have a big-time temperature contrast in place for the rest of this month.

Arctic air (below normal temps) in blue and purple colors on the loop below.
Warmer air (above normal temps) in orange, red and white colors on the loop below.

Temperature anomaly forecast valid December 24 to December 31, 2021.


Both the EPS and GEFS computer models continue to show upwards of an inch or more of precipitation in much of the Northland through December 31st — Keep in mind this takes into account the system on Tuesday, plus any additional ones which may affect our area through the end of the month.

Note: If these precipitation forecasts verify, then much of the area may see 10″ or more of snow by the end of the month.


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