Several chances for snow ahead with shots of arctic air mixed in

If you like snow and cold, well you’re going to love this forecast!

CHRISTMAS DAY SNOW

Although there is some discrepancy per model data on where the main band of snow sets up on Saturday, all the computer models are showing a swath of accumulating snow somewhere from central to northern Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin — This snow will spread west to east during the day Saturday continuing into Saturday evening before ending later Saturday night.

For Duluth: Some snow is possible Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening with snow starting between 2 PM and 4 PM Saturday and ending before Midnight Saturday night. Total snowfall accumulations of 1 to 2 inches are possible in Duluth Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening.

European computer model simulated radar forecast valid 6 AM Saturday to Midnight Sunday

Snow in blue colors on the animation below

Here’s my snowfall forecast for the snow event on Christmas

Check out these high temperatures from today, Friday, December 24, 2021

Note: Highs today were around +20 degrees warmer than normal for December 24th.

Ashland, WI: 45F
Brainerd, MN: 44F
Duluth, MN: 43F
Hibbing, MN: 42F
International Falls, MN: 40F

Much colder temperatures are likely on Christmas Day compared to the balmy temperatures we saw on Christmas Eve, with highs Saturday ranging from the teens in northeast Minnesota to the 20s in northwest Wisconsin.

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WINTER STORM POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY

-Widespread accumulating snow is still expected in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin from Sunday into Monday as a dual low-pressure system approaches from the southwest.

-There is some uncertainty regarding the track of this system, which may lead to either higher or lower snowfall amounts in parts of the Northland. Stay tuned!

-The North Shore of Lake Superior may see heavier lake enhanced snowfall in addition to the system snow Sunday night into Monday as winds will be out of the east. Those east winds could become quite gusty Sunday afternoon into at least Monday morning with a potential for wind gusts >25 mph. Areas of blowing snow may develop near Lake Superior from Sunday night into Monday.

-Chances for at least 2-5″ of snow are quite high in all of the Northland for Sunday night-Monday, with amounts >6″ looking most likely along the North Shore of Lake Superior.

Timing for when the snow begins on Sunday still varies depending on which model you run with, with some computer models showing the snow beginning by Sunday afternoon, while others show it not starting until mid to late Sunday evening.

The European computer model (shown below) shows the snow beginning in Duluth after 9 PM Sunday night, earlier farther to the southwest.

Here’s a look at where probabilities are highest for exceeding warning criteria snowfall for Sunday night through Monday.

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Another winter storm may impact the Northland Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday but since this potential system is still a ways out, we may see the storm track shift a bit which will determine how much snow we see in our area for the midweek time frame.

Tim

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