5:52 AM Saturday, December 25, 2021
A Winter Storm Watch is in effect from Sunday evening through Monday afternoon for all of north-central, northeast and east-central Minnesota, and for far northwest Wisconsin including the cities of International Falls, Bigfork, Grand Rapids, Cass Lake, Walker, Pine River, Brainerd, Aitkin, Hill City, McGregor, Pine City, Hinckley, Moose Lake, Cloquet, Duluth, Hibbing, Cook, Orr, Crane Lake, Ely, Two Harbors, Isabella, Silver Bay, Grand Marais, Superior, Solon Springs, Port Wing, Washburn and Bayfield.
Heavy snow possible with accumulations of around 6 inches or more, except for even higher amounts along the North Shore of Lake Superior.
East winds gusting to 25 mph may lead to areas of blowing snow especially near Lake Superior Sunday night into Monday.
Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning and evening commute.
TIMING OF THE SNOW
*Most of the day Sunday looks dry in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin with one exception, and this would be along the North Shore of Lake Superior where a little lake effect snow is possible by Sunday afternoon from Duluth northeast to Grand Marais but nothing significant in terms of accumulation is expected during the day Sunday.
*Snow is forecast to spread quickly NE out of central Minnesota Sunday evening (after 7 PM), with snow continuing overnight and into Monday morning before we see the snow taper off from SW-NE Monday afternoon and evening. Snow may linger the longest across northern Minnesota into the Arrowhead.
For Duluth: Scattered Lake effect snow showers during the day Sunday with snow associated with our winter storm arriving Sunday evening (~9 PM to 11 PM) Snow through most of the day Monday tapering off later in the afternoon ~3 PM to 5 PM the way it looks now. Gusty east winds of 15 to 25 mph are expected for Sunday night into the day Monday with areas of blowing snow.
European computer model simulated radar forecast valid from Noon Sunday to Midnight Tuesday with snow in blue colors.
Here’s a look at the forecast storm track for Sunday night and Monday.
If the low comes a little further north this may lead to somewhat lower snowfall totals (a shorter duration) snow event) in parts of the Northland, especially from east-central Minnesota into far northwest Wisconsin.
The highest probabilities for exceeding warning criteria snowfall continues to be along the North Shore of Lake Superior due to favorable conditions to support lake enhanced snow combined with the system snow for Sunday night and Monday.
Moderate to Minor Potential Winter Storm Impacts cover the entire Northland Sunday night and Monday.
Here’s an early look at where I think the highest odds are for snow amounts to reach or exceed 6″ for Sunday night and Monday.