10:20 PM Saturday, December 25, 2021
Today’s snow event was mostly a non-event (for much of the area) thanks to a lot of dry air in the atmosphere, and this dry air never really fully saturated, and as a result we were left with only a few snow flurries in Duluth early this evening, with a little snow farther to our west today with 1.8″ of snow reported near Pine River, MN, and near Merrifield, MN.
Although some light snow and flurries can’t be ruled out in parts of the Northland for the rest of tonight (accumulations of a trace to an inch), all of the attention is on the larger scale winter storm which is forecast to impact the Northland from Sunday evening into Monday.
Model guidance from late this afternoon and this evening (18z and 00z runs) haven’t changed a whole lot in regard to when the snow starts in our area and how much snow we may get.
A Winter Storm Watch covers the entire Northland from Sunday evening through Monday afternoon including the cities International Falls, Bigfork, Grand Rapids, Cass Lake, Walker, Pine River, Brainerd, Hill City, Aitkin, McGregor, Pine City, Hinckley, Moose Lake, Cloquet, Duluth, Hibbing, Ely, Cook, Orr, Crane Lake, Two Harbors, Isabella, Silver Bay, Grand Marais, Superior, Solon Springs, Port Wing, Bayfield, Washburn, Ashland, Hurley, Danbury, Grantsburg, Siren, Minong, Spooner, Shell Lake, Hayward and Winter.
-Gusty east winds especially near Lake Superior with wind gusts >25 mph Sunday night into early Monday afternoon.
-Areas of blowing and drifting snow especially near Lake Superior.
-Travel could be very difficult Sunday night into Monday.
TIMING OF THE SNOW
It looks dry in much of the Northland during the day Sunday, but as winds become east, we may see a few lake effect snow showers develop along the North Shore of Lake Superior from late Sunday morning into Sunday afternoon.
Widespread snow is expected to overspread the Northland from SW-NE Sunday night, beginning in western/southern portions of the area after 7 PM Sunday, and reaching the Borderland and Arrowhead areas early Monday morning (~1 AM to 3 AM).
Snow continues Monday morning into early afternoon, but the snow is forecast to taper off from SW-NE from mid-afternoon Monday into early Monday evening.
For Duluth: A few flurries or light lake effect snow showers during the day Sunday with little or no accumulation expected. Snow starts Sunday night ~9 PM to 11 PM. Snow tapers off Monday afternoon ~2 PM to 4 PM. Total snowfall storm accumulations of 6 to 10 inches are possible by Monday afternoon. Gusty east winds of 15 to 30 mph with areas of blowing and drifting snow Sunday night into Monday morning.
18z NAM 3km model simulated radar forecast valid Noon Sunday to 6 PM Monday.
Snow in blue colors on the animation below.
Here’s my preliminary snowfall forecast for Sunday night into Monday.