Snow and blowing snow on the way tonight into Monday with areas of freezing drizzle also possible Monday; Winter Storm Warnings and Advisories in effect for the entire Northland

9:13 AM Sunday, December 26, 2021

We’ve seen some changes to the winter weather headlines ahead of the winter storm which is forecast to hit the Northland tonight into Monday.

-The Winter Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning for much of the Northland including north-central, northeast and east-central Minnesota into far northwest Wisconsin including the cities of International Falls, Bigfork, Grand Rapids, Cass Lake, Walker, Pine River, Brainerd, Hill City, Aitkin, McGregor, Pine City, Hinckley, Moose Lake, Cloquet, Duluth, Hibbing, Ely, Cook, Orr, Crane Lake, Two Harbors, Isabella, Silver Bay, Grand Marais, Hovland, Superior, Solon Springs, Port Wing, Bayfield and Washburn.

-A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for parts of northwest Wisconsin including the cities of Danbury, Grantsburg, Siren, Minong, Spooner, Shell Lake, Hayward, Winter, Ashland and Hurley.

Impacts

  • Snow (heavy at times)
  • Heaviest snowfall rates overnight tonight through Monday morning with a lighter intensity snowfall expected Monday afternoon.
  • Snowfall rates of around an inch per hour are possible in parts of east-central and northeast Minnesota, and parts of northwest Wisconsin late tonight into Monday morning.
  • A chance for freezing drizzle during the day Monday, especially from east-central Minnesota into parts of northwest Wisconsin with ice accumulations of a light glaze possible.
  • Gusty east winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 40 mph near Lake Superior — Strongest winds are expected tonight into Monday morning.
  • Areas of blowing and drifting snow especially near Lake Superior with whiteout conditions possible at times Overnight into Monday morning mainly along the North Shore of Lake Superior.
  • Travel could be very difficult across much of the Northland late tonight through the day Monday.

Moderate winter storm impacts are possible in much of the Northland from late tonight through Monday with areas of major winter storm impacts also possible (red areas on map).

Lesser winter storm impacts are expected over southeast portions of northwest Wisconsin (yellow area on map).

TIMING

Light lake effect snow showers are possible today mainly along the North Shore of Lake Superior as winds become easterly during the day, but accumulations if any should be <1″. The remainder of the Northland should stay dry through the day today.

Snow quickly develops and overspreads the Northland from SW-NE tonight, starting in western-southern areas ~7 PM to 9 PM, and reaching the Borderland and Arrowhead early Monday morning after 2 AM the way it looks now.

For Duluth: Scattered Lake effect flurries or light snow showers today. Snow develops tonight, between 10 PM and Midnight. Snow continues through much of the day Monday, with snow tapering off by late Monday afternoon (~3 PM). Gusty east winds this evening through Monday morning (15 to 30 mph). Areas of blowing and drifting snow late tonight into Monday morning. Total snowfall storm accumulations of 10 to 13 inches are possible in Duluth by late Monday afternoon.

Areas near Lake Superior including the North Shore and also around the Bayfield Peninsula along the South Shore continue to have the highest probabilities for exceeding warning criteria snowfall from tonight into Monday, with lower chances across northern Minnesota (blue colors on map).

Here’s my updated snowfall forecast for tonight and Monday and like with all other winter systems I may need to adjust the snow amounts and gradients a bit in later updates. Stay tuned.

FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL ON MONDAY

We’ve seen some changes to the storm track with a more northerly track to the low now expected. With this northern shift, this does increase the potential that will get some freezing drizzle in parts of the Northland on Monday, with those chances’ greatest south of the storm track, or from east-central Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin.

Tim

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