Snow possible midweek. Milder temps early in the week followed by another arctic blast mid to late week

Chances that we see a few inches of snow for the midweek time frame are increasing across northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

-An area of low pressure is forecast to be over western South Dakota Tuesday morning; this low is then forecast to track east or east-northeast across southern Minnesota into northeastern Wisconsin from Tuesday evening into Wednesday.

-Accumulating snow is expected north of the storm track, with most of this snow coming in the Tuesday afternoon to Wednesday time frame.

-There is potential for heavier lake enhanced snowfall near Lake Superior with this system, with the North Shore at risk for Tuesday into early Wednesday, and then the South Shore Wednesday into Thursday morning.

-Some lake enhanced snow is also possible in Duluth and Superior mainly from Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening as winds may become ENE for a time.

-Breezy NE winds are possible Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night, followed by a N wind on Wednesday. Wind gusts of 15 to 25 mph are possible, and this may lead to areas of blowing and drifting snow especially near Lake Superior.

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Chances for exceeding warning criteria snowfall in the Northland for the midweek system are currently highest along the South Shore of Lake Superior due to the combination of system snow and potential for a prolonged period of lake effect/lake enhanced snowfall.

We may see the timing of this system change a little bit over the next 24-36 hours, but at least for now it looks like the bulk of the snow for the Northland comes Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday, but some lake effect snow may develop as early as Tuesday morning along the North Shore of Lake Superior.

European computer model simulated radar forecast valid 6 AM Tuesday to 6 PM Wednesday (snow in blue colors).

Here is my preliminary snowfall forecast for the midweek system.

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TEMPERATURE TRENDS

80s in parts of Florida and southern Georgia this afternoon, snowing in parts of northern and western Mississippi, while arctic air covered much of Canada, south into the upper Midwest.

Although still cold in the Northland tonight, it shouldn’t be nearly as cold as what we’ve seen the past few nights. Instead of seeing widespread lows in the 20s and 30s below zero in our area, will have lows tonight which will be in the single digits below to teens below zero, but temperatures may actually rise a bit overnight.

Highs on Monday are forecast to be in the teens to lower 20s, with highs Tuesday ranging from the middle teens to upper 20s (coldest temps in far northern Minnesota). Colder temps return mid to late week along with a potential for dangerously cold wind chills at times.

*A NEW RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE SET THIS MORNING AT HIBBING, MINNESOTA*

New record low for 1/2: -38 F (set this morning)
Old record low for 1/2: -37 F set in 2014

Note: We had back-to-back mornings with lows in the -20s in Duluth, with a low of -23 F Saturday morning, and -21 F Sunday morning.

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LAKE EFFECT

Widespread lake effect clouds covered a large portion of Lake Superior today with lots of cold air moving across the warmer waters of Lake Superior. Also of note is some ice (yellow outlined areas) forming on Lake Superior which was showing up on Goes-16 satellite imagery today.

Ice coverage on the Great Lakes was at ~2% as of January 1, 2022.

Tim

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