5:42 PM Monday, January 17, 2022
Winter Storm Warnings and Advisories are in effect for parts of northern Minnesota including the North Shore and Arrowhead for Tuesday.
- WINTER STORM WARNING in effect from 4 AM Tuesday to Midnight Tuesday night including the cities of Two Harbors, Silver Bay, Tofte, Lutsen, Grand Marais, Hovland and Grand Portage. IMPACTS: Heavy snow expected. Snowfall rates of up to 1.5 inches per hour are possible from mid-morning Tuesday into Tuesday afternoon. Travel could be very difficult. Northwest winds gusting as high as 45 mph from Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning, with east winds gusting to 25 mph during the day Tuesday. Areas of blowing snow leading to reduced visibilities.
- WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY in effect from early Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening including the cities of International Falls, Big Falls, Crane Lake, Orr, Cook, Ely, Hibbing, Virginia and Isabella. IMPACTS: Snow expected. Plan on slippery road conditions. Gusty northwest winds Tuesday evening into Wednesday. Areas of blowing snow could lead to reduced visibilities.
Snow is forecast to develop after Midnight tonight while spreading ESE through much of the Northland through Tuesday morning. Snow is forecast to continue through Tuesday afternoon from far northern Minnesota into the Arrowhead, while scattered snow showers continue in the rest of the Northland.
For Duluth – Snow develops early Tuesday morning ~2 AM to 4 AM. Snow tapers off mid to late Tuesday morning ~9 AM to 11 AM, but scattered snow showers may linger at times into Tuesday afternoon, but most of our accumulating snow that we get in Duluth should come prior to Noon Tuesday with total snowfall accumulations of 2 to 3 inches possible.
18z NAM 3km model simulated radar forecast valid Midnight tonight to 9 PM Tuesday (snow in blue colors)
Here’s my snowfall accumulation forecast for Tuesday’s clipper.
Low pressure is forecast to dive southeastward out of southeast Alberta reaching north-central North Dakota by daybreak Tuesday. This low will then track mostly due east across north-central Minnesota through the day Tuesday before exiting off to the east of the Northland by Tuesday evening.
Breezy east to southeast winds are expected during the day Tuesday across northern Minnesota, North Shore and Arrowhead with wind gusts up to 25 mph possible.
Stronger northwest winds overspread the Northland from west to east late Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday evening with widespread 30 to 40 mph wind gusts (possibly higher along the North Shore)
Note: Winds increase in Duluth after 4 PM Tuesday with northwest winds gusting 25 to 45 mph through Tuesday night.
A frigid air mass returns to the Northland starting Tuesday night and lingering into Friday morning.
Lows for Wednesday morning are expected to range from the single digits below to teens below zero in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin, with even colder overnight lows likely for Thursday morning and Friday morning with lows in the teens, 20s and 30s below zero expected.
Dangerously cold wind chills are likely as well starting Tuesday night with wind chill values in the teens below to around 30 below zero in the Northland.
HRRR model wind chill forecast valid 6 PM Tuesday to Noon Wednesday.
Watch the progression of arctic air on the loop below.
Above average temps in orange, red and white colors
Below average temps in blue, green and purple colors
European computer model temperature anomaly forecast valid 6 AM Tuesday, January 18, 2022, to 6 AM Friday, January 21, 2022.