Very cold tonight; Snow Saturday; Temps near 40 Tuesday afternoon

6:31 PM Friday, February 4, 2022

Saturday’s clipper will have a nice temperature gradient to work with as will see temperatures close to 40 in southwest Minnesota to the single digits across northern Minnesota, this combined with good jet stream dynamics will lead to a widespread accumulating snow event in the Northland on Saturday with the highest amounts of 3-5″ still favoring areas along and north of Highway 2 in northeast Minnesota, but this system has been trending a little farther south in model runs since Thursday which may lead to snow totals reaching 3-4″ even in Duluth.

Snowfall total at Duluth so far for the winter of 2021-22 (Dec 1 thru Feb 4) is at 43.3″, this is +5.9″ above normal to date. Percent of normal snowfall to date 116% of normal.

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A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for parts of northern and northeast Minnesota for Saturday. The advisory begins between 4 AM and 8 AM Saturday and ends between 6 PM and 9 PM Saturday. Some cities in the advisory include International Falls, Big Falls, Bigfork, Grand Rapids, Moose Lake, Cloquet, Duluth, Hibbing, Virginia, Ely, Cook, Orr, Crane Lake, Two Harbors, Isabella, Silver Bay and Grand Marais. IMPACTS: Plan on slippery road conditions due to accumulating snow on Saturday. Patchy blowing snow is also possible due to gusty southerly winds through early Saturday afternoon.

TIMING OF SATURDAY’S SNOW

  • Snow begins in western areas between 4 AM and 6 AM Saturday.
  • Snow reaches the North Shore, Arrowhead and northwest Wisconsin around 7-8 AM Saturday.
  • Snow diminishes from west to east late Saturday afternoon and Saturday evening with all of the snow departing the Northland before Midnight.

For Duluth — Snow begins Saturday morning between 6-7 AM, ends late Saturday afternoon/early evening between 4 PM and 7 PM. Total snowfall accumulations of 3 to 4 inches. A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect during the day Saturday.

18z NAM 3km model simulated radar forecast valid Midnight tonight to 9 PM Saturday (snow in blue colors)

There is a chance that we may see a few bursts of heavy snow in parts of north-central into northeast Minnesota on Saturday with a decent amount of forcing over the area, coupled with steepening mid-level lapse rates during the day.

Here’s my updated snowfall forecast for Saturday.

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Our clipper for Saturday is currently spinning southeast across British Columbia, and this system does look pretty healthy on water vapor imagery as it heads southeast (forecast storm track in red)

An impressive temperature gradient will be in place for Saturday’s clipper, with 850mb temperatures ranging from -20C over far northeast Minnesota to 0C over far southern Minnesota.

A warm air advection pattern south/east of an approaching low-pressure system from the northwest will cause snow to break out in the Northland Saturday morning.

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It’ll be another very cold night in the Northland thanks to mainly clear skies this evening with increasing cloudiness occurring overnight prior to Saturday’s snow event.

Lows tonight will range from around 5 below to 25 below zero in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

We are still looking at a nice warmup next week, with Tuesday looking like the warmest day next week this is when we should see highs above the freezing mark to possibly as warm as 40 degrees in much of the Northland.

Tim

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