5:30 PM Tuesday, February 15, 2022
We may see a rather snowy pattern setup in the Northland late this weekend into the middle of next week as an upper-level trough develops over the Rockies with a ridge across the southern/eastern U.S. Sometimes we can get a major winter storm in our area with a pattern like the one that is forecast to develop next week, but at the moment the chances of a major winter storm impacting the Northland are on the low side, instead it looks like we may see a couple of disturbances break off the western trough while possibly affecting parts of the upper Midwest and western Great Lakes from around February 20-23, what this leads to is a possibility for a few rounds of accumulating snow during the aforementioned time period. There is also a chance we may see a few days of east or northeast winds develop and with a cold air mass in place, this leads to the possibility for some lake effect/lake enhanced snow near Lake Superior for both the North Shore and South Shore including in Duluth late this weekend/early next week. Stay tuned.
Seeing decent probabilities for snowfall totals of 6 inches or more through late next week in much of the Northland.
Looks like the Northland will be on the colder side of the storm tracks next week with below average temperatures looking likely at the moment while warmer than average temperatures cover areas from the southern to eastern U.S.
Check out this temperature contrast for Sunday!
Near 50 degrees along the Minnesota-Iowa border to the single digits in northwest Minnesota.
SHORT TERM
- Brisk easterly winds continue near Lake Superior this evening with wind gusts to 30 mph.
- Blustery winds out of the northwest develop on Wednesday with wind gusts of 20 to 30 mph.
- Temperatures remain above zero in the Northland tonight, but subzero temperatures return Wednesday night.
The snow has been falling this afternoon across northern Minnesota (north of Duluth) with some heavy snow at times especially in the Arrowhead along the North Shore impacting southern Cook County.
Radar loop from 12:09 PM to 3:54 PM Tuesday, February 15, 2022 (heavier snow in green colors)
Here are some webcam images of the snow and waves along the North Shore of Lake Superior from just before 4 PM today.
Grand Marais Harbor Cam
Bluefin Bay Cam
Snow continues in far northern Minnesota and over the Arrowhead tonight before diminishing early Wednesday morning from west to east. The rest of the Northland should remain mostly snow-free tonight, although some patchy freezing drizzle can’t be ruled out this evening along with a few flurries or snow showers overnight.
Simulated radar forecast through 6 AM Wednesday.
Here’s how much additional snow could fall thru 6 AM Wednesday per NWS forecast.
Some snow remains possible on Friday as another clipper moves SE across the Northland. Early snowfall estimates for Friday look to be in that 1-2″ range, with up to 3″ possible north of Highway 2 in northeast Minnesota.
Gusty winds are also possible behind the clipper Friday afternoon into Friday night.
Lowest temperatures so far this month
International Falls -42 F on the 13th and 3rd
Hibbing: -36 F on the 13th and 3rd
Brainerd: -31 F on the 3rd
Duluth: -22 F on the 12th
Ashland: -19 F on the 12th
Our cold January has carried over into the first half of February with average monthly temperatures in the Northland running -6 to -8 degrees colder than average through the 14th of February — See below.
International Falls, MN: -1.5 F, -8.5 degrees below average
Hibbing, MN: -0.5 F, -8.6 degrees below average
Duluth, MN: 5.0 F, -8.1 degrees below average
Brainerd, MN: 5.6 F, -7.2 degrees below average
Ashland, WI: 8.6 F, -6.5 degrees below average
The period from December 1, 2021 to February 14, 2022 ranks as the 13th coldest on record by climate district in northeast Minnesota.
Here are the average temperatures and departure from normal for winter 2021-22 (Dec. 1 to Feb. 14) Note: The last day of meteorological winter is February 28.
International Falls: 4.3 F, -3.8 degrees below average
Hibbing, MN: 5.4 F, -3.6 degrees below average
Cass Lake, MN: 6.1 F, -4.3 degrees below average
Duluth, MN: 10.6 F, -3.4 degrees below average
Brainerd, MN: 10.7 F, -2.9 degrees below average
Although it’s been a cold winter across the upper Midwest, the opposite has occurred across the southern Plains and southwest U.S. where parts of Arizona have had their warmest or a top 10 warmest winter on record so far, while parts of Oklahoma and Texas have also had a top 10 warmest winter on record so far.
Thanks for reading!
Tim
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