Winter Storm Watch issued for parts of the Northland

9:12 AM Sunday, February 20, 2022

A Winter Storm Watch is in effect from Monday morning through Tuesday afternoon for portions of east-central Minnesota and all of northwest Wisconsin including the cities of Cass Lake, Walker, Pine River, Brainerd, Aitkin, Hill City, McGregor, Pine City, Hinckley, Moose Lake, Cloquet, Duluth, Superior, Solon Springs, Washburn, Bayfield, Ashland, Hurley, Danbury, Grantsburg, Siren, Minong, Spooner, Shell Lake, Hayward and Winter.

Impacts

-Heavy snow possible
-Travel could be very difficult to impossible
-Gusty winds will cause areas of blowing and drifting snow especially near Lake Superior

Also of note will be the forecasted temperatures which are going to be on the cold side while the snow is falling and blowing around, we’re looking at daytime highs only in the single digits to perhaps the lower teens Monday and Tuesday with subzero wind chills both days.

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Snowfall totals continue to increase for Duluth per SREF snowfall plume forecast, although I’m not really buying into the extreme snow totals, they are showing (yet) but it is worth noting the newest NAM model and 3km NAM model are also showing some very impressive snow totals in parts of east-central Minnesota, northwest Wisconsin and in the Twin Ports (on the order of 20-25+”)

The 03z run from the SREF model showed a mean of 20″ of snow for Duluth, and now the newest run 09z has bumped that total to 26″! The spread between the individual members ranges from a low of 12″ to a high of 38″ through Wednesday morning.

This model run updates 4 times a day, so I’ll be keeping an eye on it to see if the snow totals remain the same, or if they start to decrease or perhaps even increase a little more.

Here’s my updated snowfall forecast as of 9 AM Sunday for the period Monday morning through early Wednesday morning. Additional updates to this forecast are possible throughout the day.

Looks like will see snow spread into the southern half of the Northland beginning early Monday morning (2-6 AM time frame) with snow spreading farther north reaching far northern Minnesota and the Arrowhead region by mid to late afternoon Monday.

It doesn’t look like will see the snow completely end until sometime early Wednesday morning, although we may see a lull or two in snowfall intensity through the event.

For Duluth — Snow is forecast to begin around 3-5 AM Monday. Snow ends around 1-3 AM Wednesday. Total snowfall accumulations of 10-15 inches are possible with locally higher amounts through Wednesday morning. It will also be windy Monday into Tuesday with a northeast wind on Monday gusting 20 to 35 mph, and a north wind on Tuesday with gusts to 20 to 25 mph. Blowing and drifting snow is likely in the Twin Ports Monday and Tuesday, and we may see near whiteout conditions develop at times especially during the day Monday into Monday evening.

Thanks for reading!

Tim


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