6:18 PM Monday, March 28, 2022
Another wintry mess is heading our way with some tricky travel possible from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning before conditions improve Wednesday afternoon.
Highest snow amounts with this next system look to be over parts of north-central Minnesota into the Arrowhead as snow should be the main precipitation type over those areas due to a colder air mass. Farther south we’re looking at a real mess due to a warm layer of air aloft while low level temperatures will be close to the freezing mark (29 to 33 F) this will likely cause different precipitation types ranging from wet snow to sleet to rain to freezing rain. Currently it looks like parts of northwest Wisconsin into eastern Minnesota (south of Duluth and Superior) have the greatest potential for ice accumulations greater than 0.10″ from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning, but a light glaze of ice is even possible as far north as the Twin Ports.
Here’s a look at our approaching system for mid-week as it moves east across the western U.S. today per water vapor imagery.
Goes-16 water vapor loop from Monday afternoon, March 28, 2022.
STORM TRACK
Still looking at two low pressure systems ejecting NE out of the Central Plains over the next few days.
The northern most low will have the greatest impact on the Northland’s weather Tuesday night and Wednesday as low pressure tracks from northeast Colorado to northern Iowa.
The southern low is forecast to track from northern Oklahoma to northwest Lake Huron from Wednesday morning to Thursday morning, and with a storm track like that, the bulk of the precipitation associated with that low should remain farther south/east of the Northland from Wednesday evening through Thursday morning.
TIMING OF PRECIPITATION
- Will stay dry in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin for most of the day Tuesday.
- Chances for rain, freezing rain or sleet increase late Tuesday afternoon or Tuesday evening.
- Wet snow, freezing rain or sleet Overnight Tuesday through much of the day Wednesday.
- Wet snow or a wintry mix tapers off from W-E Wednesday afternoon, but wet snow or a wintry mix could linger into Wednesday evening from eastern Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin.
For Duluth — Dry during the day Tuesday followed by a mix of rain, sleet, wet snow and possibly some patchy freezing rain Tuesday evening (after 7 PM). Precipitation switches over to mostly wet snow or sleet late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning with lingering snow showers into Wednesday afternoon. Total snow and sleet accumulations of 1 to 3 inches by Wednesday afternoon.
Simulated radar forecast valid 1 PM Tuesday to 10 PM Wednesday
Snow (blue)
Rain (green)
Wintry mix (purple and pink)
Here’s my updated snow and sleet accumulation forecast valid Tuesday night through early Wednesday evening.
FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL
Some freezing rain is likely Tuesday night into Wednesday morning mostly over parts of eastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin, these areas have a chance to pick up anywhere from 0.05 to 0.25 of ice accumulation during the aforementioned time period.
For Duluth — Ice Accumulation ranges from a low-end amount of 0.00″ to a high-end amount of 0.26″ per 12z EPS model.
Here’s another model forecast (HREF) of ice accumulation for Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.
Black outlined area on map represents where ice accumulations could reach one quarter of an inch.
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
There is a chance for a few thunderstorms Tuesday night into Wednesday morning mainly over parts of southern Minnesota into parts of central and southern Wisconsin as indicated by the green and blue colors on the animation below which indicate a higher probability of thunder occurring late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.
WINDS
Strong winds don’t look to be a major issue with this system, although it will still be breezy Tuesday night through Thursday with some of the highest wind gusts occurring on Thursday.
Winds will be out of the east to northeast Tuesday through Wednesday morning, with winds becoming north to northwest Wednesday afternoon through Thursday.
For Duluth — Easterly winds with gusts of 20 to around 30 mph are expected Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning. Winds shift to the north-northwest Wednesday afternoon and remain out of the north-northwest on Thursday.
Wind Gust forecast valid 7 PM Tuesday to 7 PM Thursday.
Thanks for reading!
Tim