6:35 PM Thursday, March 31, 2022
The month of April will begin with 16″ of snow still on the ground at International Falls and 9″ of snow on the ground at Duluth (Airport location) Needless to say we need some warmth around here to help melt this snow so spring can get underway.
Temperatures will warm up over the next few days, with temperatures at least getting back to where they should be this time of year (highs in the 40s), but I’m still not seeing any strong signals in the computer models for a widespread major warm up (highs in the 50s or warmer) anytime soon.
- March 2022 was definitely colder than last March at Duluth, with March 2021 going into the record books as the 8th warmest March on record at Duluth, but March 2022 will finish around -3.0 degrees colder than average at Duluth and will be the 3rd month in a row with a below average monthly temperature.
- Monthly snowfall total at Duluth for March 2022 was 6.9″, this is -5.9″ below normal, and March 2022 was the 6th consecutive March with below normal snowfall at Duluth. March 2016 was the last time we had above normal snowfall at Duluth for the month of March.
An active weather pattern will continue into this weekend, although no major storms will be impacting the Northland at least through early next week, and most of us should stay dry through early next week, but southern parts of the area or from east-central Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin (south of the Twin Ports) may see a little rain or wet snow Friday night into early Saturday morning, and possibly again Sunday night into early Monday morning.
500mb forecast valid 7 PM Friday to 1 AM Monday shows two systems of interest as they track SE out of the Northern Plains, with the first system moving through Friday night/Saturday morning and the other moving across the area Sunday night.
Will stay dry in the Northland through the day Friday, after that we could see some rain or a mix of rain/wet snow possibly changing over to wet snow Friday night through early Saturday morning mainly from eastern Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin with any snow accumulation staying under an inch the way it looks now.
Simulated radar forecast valid from 7 PM Friday to 7 AM Saturday
Snow (blue)
Rain (green)
Storm Potential Next Week
Another messy storm could impact the Northland next week (~April 5-7)
An area of low pressure is forecast to move into southwest Canada on Sunday, this low is then forecast to track ESE into the Northern Plains, Midwest and Great Lakes from mid to late next week.
There is still considerable uncertainty on the track and intensity of this low-pressure system next week as well as what type of precipitation (rain, snow, ice) will see in the Northland if this system does hit our area, but all of this is typical with a system that is still about 5 days away. For now, it’s all about watching model trends to see how they handle this system for next week.
Here’s the 500mb forecast valid from April 3-8, 2022 — Blue and green colors on the animation below represents a trough with a potential for unsettled/stormy weather.
No consistency seen (yet) on where an area of low pressure may be next Wednesday morning per European model guidance.
The location of an area of low-pressure next Wednesday morning has ranged from it being over western Minnesota to southern Manitoba to southwest Minnesota to far eastern Iowa per latest run today.
And the same holds true for next Thursday morning, with wild swings from one model run to the next on the location of an area of low pressure per Euro model guidance, with the low being centered over northern lower Michigan to southern Ontario to the Iowa-Illinois border to far northeast Iowa per latest model run today.
Bottom line is you can probably throw out the 12-24″+ snowfall totals the Euro model is showing in Duluth and other parts of the Northland with this storm for later next week.
Thanks for reading!
Tim
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