6:10 PM Monday, April 11, 2022
A strong spring storm will affect the Northland over the next few days, but the track of this system has shifted quite a bit compared to a few days ago, and with this new storm track we’ve seen a rather significant drop in precipitation totals in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin due to a large dry slot which is now expected to move over much of the Northland Wednesday and Thursday which will result in much lighter precipitation occurring on those days.
The most significant precipitation looks like it will move through the Northland Tuesday evening into early Wednesday morning, but after that mostly light and showery type of precipitation Wednesday through early Friday.
The strength of this system hasn’t changed a bit over the last few days, in fact the mid and upper-level low continues to look very strong and unusually deep for this time of year, but with this low moving ENE out of the Dakotas and passing generally north of our local area it will help bring a dry slot into most of the Northland starting on Wednesday.
Here’s the 500mb forecast valid from 7 AM Tuesday to 7 PM Friday.
Multiple lows, but the main low is the one lifting N out of eastern Nebraska on Tuesday to near Thunder Bay Ontario Canada by around daybreak on Thursday.
Some severe thunderstorms are possible late Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night over parts of south-central and eastern Minnesota into central and southern Wisconsin with large hail and damaging winds being the primary severe weather hazards, but a tornado or two cannot be ruled out mainly in southern Minnesota into southwest Wisconsin.
An even greater risk for severe thunderstorms including a possibility for strong tornadoes exists from eastern Nebraska into much of Iowa late Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night.
Although severe weather isn’t expected in our neck of the woods, there is still a chance that we will see a few thunderstorms Tuesday night, mainly across southern portions of the Northland from eastern Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin.
Probability for thunder valid 1 PM Tuesday to 7 PM Wednesday
Higher probabilities for thunder in green colors, but even higher odds in blue and pink on the animation below.
It continues to look windy through Friday, with two main time periods for strongest winds. One occurring Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning, the other Thursday into Friday.
For Duluth — After a windy day today winds will diminish tonight through Tuesday morning, but easterly winds will ramp up Tuesday afternoon with wind gusts of 30 to 50 mph possible from Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning. Winds diminish a bit Wednesday afternoon/night but will pick up again Thursday and Friday with wind gusts of 30-40+ mph possible. Wind direction will shift to the SW Wednesday afternoon through Friday.
Wind gust forecast valid 7 AM Tuesday to 7 PM Friday.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will end in the Northland this evening, and this will be followed by mostly dry conditions overnight through around daybreak on Tuesday, but after that will likely see a few waves of rain lift from SW-NE across the area beginning mid to late Tuesday morning and continuing through early Wednesday morning.
For Duluth — Mainly dry early Tuesday morning followed by some rain at times starting around 9 AM to Noon, and some rain is likely at times through early Wednesday morning.
Simulated radar forecast valid 7 AM Tuesday to 7 AM Wednesday.
Rain (green)
Snow (blue)
Overall, we’re looking at a general half inch to an inch of precipitation in the Northland thru early Friday morning with locally higher amounts possible in parts of northwest Wisconsin, along the North Shore/Arrowhead and along the Borderland. Lesser amounts of precipitation expected for the Brainerd Lakes area.
Note: It wouldn’t surprise me if we end up with lower totals than what this map is showing for Duluth.
Total precipitation thru 7 AM Friday.
A powerful spring/winter storm affecting much of the western, northern and central U.S. the next few days with a variety of weather alerts in effect.
Snowfall storm totals of 1 to nearly 3 feet are possible by Friday morning over parts of North Dakota.
This pattern is pretty wild!
One strong system which moved through the Northland last night and early Monday morning continues to lift quickly NE across eastern Ontario this afternoon, while the next big storm heads ESE out of the Pacific northwest, and in between these two larger systems is a smaller system which is moving quickly east across Minnesota this afternoon.
Goes-16 water vapor loop from Monday, April 11, 2022.
Cold temperatures aloft (500mb temperature around -32C) combined with warmer air near the surface made the atmosphere a little unstable this afternoon with CAPE approaching 250 J/kg along with steep mid-level lapse rates >7.0 c/km via meso-analysis data.
Here’s a look at the impulse which has been moving through Minnesota this afternoon via Goes-16 visible satellite loop.
A few thunderstorms developed late this afternoon near and slightly east of Highway 23 in northeast Minnesota, and near Highway 35 in northwest Wisconsin. Occasional lightning, brief downpours and gusty winds with these storms late today.
Snowfall Reports from around the Northland from early Monday morning, April 11, 2022.
3 E Orr, MN: 3.8″
2 E Celina, MN: 3.0″
25 E Ely, MN: 3.0″
0.4 WSW Chisholm, MN: 2.4″
Floodwood, MN: 1.3″
Embarrass, MN: 1.0″
Duluth, MN (Airport) 0.6″
Cook, MN: 0.5″
International Falls, MN: 0.3″
Thanks for reading!
Tim
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