8:20 PM Tuesday, May 10, 2022
The weather locally will remain on the quiet side tonight through Wednesday morning, but after that will likely be dealing with a few rounds of showers and thunderstorms between Wednesday afternoon and early Friday morning.
| Severe Weather Ingredients for Wednesday and Thursday. 1: A warm front lifting north out of southern Minnesota from Wednesday through Thursday. 2: A cold front moving east out of the Northern Plains and across the upper Midwest Thursday night. 3: A deepening surface low lifting northeastward through the Northern Plains on Thursday. Forcing/lift associated with the low and different frontal boundaries will help produce showers and thunderstorms at times from Wednesday afternoon through early Friday morning. A very humid air mass consisting of dew points in the 60s and lower 70s over the Midwest will get pulled back north into the upper Midwest Wednesday and Thursday with Precipitable Water ranging from around 1.25″ to as high as 1.90″. With all of this moisture in place this raises the potential for getting heavy rain. Instability is forecast to increase from south to north on Wednesday, but most if not all of this instability in our area should be elevated which lessens the tornado and damaging wind potential, but we may still see a few severe storms with mostly a large hail threat (1″ or greater in diameter) Wednesday afternoon but more so Wednesday night. Thursday’s severe weather potential is certainly there, but the timing of this system might be a little unfavorable for a higher end severe weather event in much of the Northland since it doesn’t appear that will see the cold front move into our area until later Thursday evening and that is also the time for when we could see some strong to severe thunderstorms move through parts of the area. I think wind and hail are the primary severe weather threats in our area for Thursday with any tornado threat likely remaining over the eastern Dakotas into west-central Minnesota the way it looks now. |
HRRR model simulated radar forecast valid 7 AM Wednesday to 7 AM Thursday.
Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible in much of the Northland from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night. Large hail to 1″ or greater in diameter appears to be the primary severe weather threat at this time, and the chances for severe weather are highest across southern parts of the Northland (yellow area).
Scattered to numerous strong to severe thunderstorms are possible in much of the Northland Thursday through Thursday night with the highest chances for severe weather located in western parts of the area (shaded in orange).
This looks to be mostly a Thursday evening/overnight severe threat in the Northland with damaging winds and large hail being the primary severe weather hazards.
…HEAVY RAIN/FLOOD POTENTIAL…
Locally heavy rainfall may lead to areas of flooding across parts of the Northland especially as we get into Wednesday night/early Thursday morning.
Yellow area represents at least a 15% chance for rainfall to exceed flash flood guidance.
Green area represents at least a 5% chance for rainfall to exceed flash flood guidance.
The risk for additional heavy rainfall continues Thursday morning, and again late Thursday afternoon into Thursday night, however, the risk for rainfall to exceed flash flood guidance is highest farther north compared to where the risk area is for late Wednesday.
Rainfall totals of an inch or more are possible through Friday morning across western/southern parts of the Northland.
5-Day Significant River Flood Outlook valid thru May 15, 2022.
*Significant River Flooding is occurring in red and is possible in yellow.
It’s back to reality for locations near Lake Superior the next few days after today’s taste of July like weather.
High temperatures in the 40s and 50s are likely within about 20-25 miles of Lake Superior for Wednesday and Thursday as a gusty NE wind returns near the lake. A wind shift to the SW is expected to occur on Friday and assuming that does happen then will see temperatures jump back into the 70s near Lake Superior.
Farther inland expect the warm temperatures to continue through Thursday.
Today’s (May 10th, 2022) high of 77 degrees at the Duluth Airport is the warmest temperature we’ve had in Duluth since September 19th, 2021, high of 85 degrees.
The average date for the first 70 degree or warmer high temperature in Duluth is April 23rd so our first 70 this year occurred about 2 weeks later than normal.
Highs Thursday may get close to 90 degrees in far southern parts of the Northland from Brainerd to Hinckley to Hayward with low to mid 90s possible across central and southern Minnesota on Thursday.
Thanks for reading!
Tim
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