6:18 PM Friday, May 13, 2022
Will get a break from the stormy weather as of late, but there is a chance that we may see an active pattern return once again later next week.
Two cold fronts will be moving through the Northland, one on Saturday and another one on Sunday. Weak lift accompanying these fronts along with a pool of cold air aloft (500mb temps -20 to -25C) and warmer temps near the surface will help create a slightly unstable atmosphere this weekend, and the result from all this is for a few showers and thunderstorms to move across the Northland Saturday and again on Sunday. Coverage of this rain looks widely scattered both days with many of us not getting any rain at all the entire weekend.
Will have some sun Saturday and Sunday with highs in the 60s and 70s on Saturday and ranging from the low 60s to low 70s on Sunday.
Winds will generally be out of the southwest this weekend at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 35 mph, but there is a possibility for an easterly wind direction near Lake Superior Saturday morning into early Saturday afternoon before winds shift to the southwest.
Simulated radar forecast valid 7 AM Saturday to 7 PM Sunday.
The spring of 2022 has been awfully wet in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.
Total Precipitation and Percent of Normal since March 1, 2022
International Falls: 10.93″; 292% of normal
Duluth: 7.80″; 147% of normal
Total Precipitation over the last the 60 days.
Percent of Normal Precipitation over the last 60 days.
Rainfall Reports over the last 48 hours
5.6 NNE Isle, MN: 3.81″
0.4 W Silver Bay, MN: 3.45″
0.5 E Floodwood, MN: 3.38″
2.4 N Hinckley, MN: 3.30″
Wolf Ridge, MN: 3.02″
17.6 NNW Duluth, MN: 2.99″
2.4 W Kettle River, MN: 2.96″
3 NE Nisswa, MN: 2.94″
5.2 NNW Ely, MN: 2.90″
0.8 S Askov, MN: 2.78″
Silver Bay, MN: 2.69″
11.8 N Lutsen, MN: 2.65″
3 W Wright, MN: 2.55″
5.7 ESE Cotton, MN: 2.51″
6.6 NW Grand Marais, MN: 2.49″
7 N McGregor, MN: 2.47″
Ely, MN: 2.40″
5.8 SW Cloquet, MN: 2.39″
Hill City, MN: 2.27″
5.6 NE Carlton, MN: 2.26″
4.4 ENE Webster, WI: 2.20″
Embarrass, MN: 2.16″
Saginaw, MN: 2.12″
Wrenshall, MN: 2.12″
Lutsen, MN: 2.09″
Chisholm-Hibbing Airport: 2.07″
Seagull Lake, MN: 2.06″
Esko, MN: 2.01″
Moose Lake, MN: 1.96″
Brainerd, MN: 1.92″
2 WNW Superior, WI: 1.83″
Duluth Airport: 1.73″
Grand Rapids, MN: 1.65″
Superior Airport: 1.35″
International Falls, MN: 1.33″
Deer River, MN: 1.24″
Hayward, WI: 1.24″
French River, MN: 1.13″
Glidden, WI: 1.11″
Cable, WI: 1.09″
Washburn, WI: 1.05″
***Additional Storm Reports from May 12-13, 2022***
5:00 AM 5/13: Flash Flood. 1 NW Finland, MN (Lake County) A washout was reported along Breezy Lane in Finland.
5:00 AM 5/13: Flash Flood. 3 NE Finland, MN (Lake County) Multiple washouts along Cramer Road near and east of Finland.
11:00 PM 5/12: Marine Thunderstorm Wind 48 mph. 1 SSE Silver Bay, MN (Lake County)
10:45 PM 5/12: Marine Thunderstorm Wind 36 mph. 1 N Port Wing, WI (Bayfield County)
9:45 PM 5/12: Thunderstorm Wind Damage. 4 SSE Kelly Lake, MN (St. Louis County) Spotter reports large tree down over the road.
9:15 PM 5/12: Hail 1.50 inch (Ping Pong ball size) 1 S Goodland, MN (Itasca County)
8:39 PM 5/12: Thunderstorm Wind Damage. 2 SSW Manhattan Beach, MN (Crow Wing County) Tree down on powerline and on fire.
8:25 PM 5/12: Thunderstorm Wind Damage. 1 S Pine River, MN (Cass County) Multiple trees larger than 12 inches in diameter down along Hessman Hill Road.
8:15 PM 5/12: Thunderstorm Wind Damage. 1 NE Brainerd, MN (Crow Wing County) Tree down across the road, nearly landing on a parked car.
8:14 PM 5/12: Thunderstorm Wind Gust 61 mph. 4 NE Brainerd, MN (Crow Wing County)
8:12 PM 5/12: Thunderstorm Wind Damage. 1 W Brainerd, MN (Crow Wing County) Several trees were downed by the winds near the North Memorial Ambulance Station in Brainerd.
8:10 PM 5/12: TORNADO. Pillager, MN (Cass County) Law enforcement relayed a report of a tornado on the ground near the Cenex Gas Station near Pillager.
8:05 PM 5/12: Hail 0.75 inch. Britt, MN (St. Louis County) Hail lasted about 5 minutes.
7:06 PM 5/12: Thunderstorm Wind Damage. 2 NNE Baxter, MN (Crow Wing County) Eight trees downed between reporters location and next door neighbor on Red Sand Lake. Trees fell over a period of 5 minutes at the onset of the storm.
4:50 PM 5/12: Hail 1.00 inch (Quarter size) 3 S Coleraine, MN (Itasca County)
3:40 PM 5/12: Hail 1.50 inch (Ping Pong ball size) Pine River, MN (Cass County)
10:50 AM 5/12: Marine Thunderstorm Wind 39 mph. 1 SSE Silver Bay, MN (Lake County)
A Derecho moved across the eastern Dakotas into western and central Minnesota from late Thursday afternoon through early Thursday evening.
Preliminary filtered storm report numbers from the Storm Prediction Center
Damaging Wind: Well over 200 reports
Significant Damaging Wind Events >65 knots: Over 50 reports
Tornadoes: 4 (2 in South Dakota and 2 in Minnesota)
***1 fatality due to Thursday’s severe thunderstorms***
2 NE Blomkest, MN (Kandiyohi County) Grain bin fell on an occupied car resulting in a fatality.
Here are some of the strongest wind gusts that occurred with Thursday’s derecho.
2 NW Tripp, SD: 107 mph
1 WNW Lake Cochrane, SD: 102 mph
1 ENE Madison Lake, SD: 97 mph
2 SSE Madison, MN: 94 mph
2 NW Verndale, MN: 94 mph
2 W Arcadia, NE: 90 mph
2 NNW Huron, SD: 90 mph
Thursday’s (5/12/2022) derecho produced the 2nd most preliminary hurricane force wind gusts since at least 2004. The top 4 have all occurred within the last 2 years, and in 4 different months — Source, Storm Prediction Center.
Number of power outages in the Minnesota Power district was at 75 as of late Friday afternoon, and an updated message from Minnesota Power stated that this will be a multi-day event and they estimate that power will be restored to the majority of the customers late Saturday evening.
FLOOD WARNING INFORMATION
*Flood Warning is in effect from this evening to early Wednesday morning, May 18 for the St. Louis River at Scanlon affecting Carlton County. Moderate flooding is forecast. At 1:30 PM Friday the stage was 10.1 feet (minor flooding occurs near Scanlon at a stage of 10.5 feet). The river is expected to rise above flood stage late this evening to a crest of 11.4 feet Sunday morning. It will then fall below flood stage early Wednesday morning. This crest compares to a previous crest of 11.2 feet on April 8, 1997.
*Flood Warning for lakes and rivers within the Rainy River Basin including Lake Vermilion, Crane Lake, Namakan Lake, Kabetogama Lake, Rainy Lake and the Rainy River.
*Flood Warning in effect until 10:15 AM Friday, May 20 for Northern Koochiching County adjacent to Rainy River.
*Flood Warning in effect until further notice for the Mississippi River at Aitkin and Fort Ripley
*Flood Warning in effect until 1 PM Tuesday, May 17 for a portion of northeast Minnesota including Cook and Lake Counties. Rivers and streams draining from the high elevations of the North Shore of Lake Superior from Castle Danger to Grand Portage are running extremely high. Upland areas in Cook and Lake County are experiencing road washouts and closures.
***The following roads are closed following recent rain and washouts in St. Louis County***
Updated 6:10 PM Friday, May 13, 2022.
-County Road 860, also known as Mcarthur Road is closed between County Road 734/Shipley Road and County Road 725/Birch Road in New Independence Township.
-County State Aid Highway 49, also known as Three Lakes Road is closed between County State Aid Highway 15/Munger Shaw Road and County State Aid Highway 4/Vermilion Trail in Unorganized Township 53-16.
-County Road 353, also known as Brimson Toimi Road is closed between Highway 16 and Little Creek Road in Fairbanks Township.
-County Road 165, also known as Swan Lake Road has restricted access east of County Road 170/McGonagle Road in Ness Township. There is water on the road, but residents will be able to use the road to get to their home.
We will have several days of mostly dry weather ahead in much of the Northland, although a few showers and thunderstorms are expected this weekend, coverage of this rain won’t be nearly as widespread or heavy as we’ve seen the last few days, but long-range models are showing another setup to where we may be dealing with a more widespread rain event once again late next week (around May 19-21).
500mb height anomaly forecast for late next week
Troughs/potential for unsettled and stormy weather in blue and green.
Ridging/generally quiet weather in orange.
Thanks for reading!
Tim
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